McDonald’s (MCD) stock forecast 2027–2029
What is the McDonald’s (MCD) stock forecast?
Our forecast for McDonald’s
$278.03by November 2027
$301.04by November 2029
From $263.04 at the November 3, 2026 close, that is a 9 % gain by 2027 and 24 % by 2029, dividends included.
It blends three cases for November 2027, US$ per share:
- Bear23528 % chance
- Base28653 % chance
- Bull32019 % chance
Our own forecast, built from McDonald’s's filings. It is not an average of analysts' price targets, so it can differ from them.
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Executive summary + 8 chapters · 21,208 words · 182 sources
McDonald’s (MCD) key numbers
Dividend yield is a year of dividends as a share of the price.
- 2.9 %dividend yield
- Feb 10, 2027next results, expected
- $7.16 billionrevenue in the quarter to Sep 2026, +1 % on a year earlier
Prices and ratios: our report, at the November 3, 2026 close. Revenue: the company's own figures.
McDonald’s analyst recommendations
Of the 64 analysts FMP tracks on November 14, 2026, 37 rate McDonald’s buy or strong buy, 25 hold, 2 sell.
- 37 Buy or strong buy
- 25 Hold
- 2 Sell or strong sell
FMP's consensus label: “Buy”.
Analysts' average price target: $284.14. Targets run from $230 to $325. That is 4.5 % above FMP's price of $271.97 on the same day (calculated).
What analysts expect McDonald’s to earn per share, on average:
- Fiscal year ending December 2026: $12.94 (20 analysts)
- Fiscal year ending December 2027: $13.70 (21 analysts)
Analyst data: FMP, November 14, 2026. This is what analysts publish, not a MyStockButler recommendation.
Where could McDonald’s shares be in each forecast year?
Our weighted price is $278.03 in November 2027, a 9% return including dividends. It is $301.04 in November 2029, a 24% return including dividends. The bear case has 28% probability. The base case has 53%. The bull case has 19%.
The probability-weighted price is $278.03 in November 2027, $290.30 in November 2028, and $301.04 in November 2029. Including dividends, those prices represent returns of 9%, 16%, and 24% from today’s $263.04.
What has to go right or wrong for McDonald’s?
The base case assumes gradual improvement, while the bear and bull cases test whether traffic and NEXT spending produce weaker or stronger results.
The forecast's table · base case, then bear / bull in brackets; USD millions, per share in USD, unless shown · November 2027
- Earnings9,570 (8,943 / 9,735)
- Shares (millions)703 (705 / 700)
- Dividends per share7.72 (7.72 / 7.72)
- Price to earnings21.00 (18.50 / 23.00)
Bull case, 19 % chance: if it goes right
$411.83 by November 2029, +66 % with dividends.
Bear case, 28 % chance: if it goes wrong
$210.64 by November 2029, −11 % with dividends.
The next test: results expected February 10, 2027
Net restaurant additions (restaurants), 2026: 2,100, guided on August 7, 2026.
How much cash does McDonald’s really make?
A stricter owner’s calculation subtracts stock compensation from free cash flow. Stock awards are not a current cash payment, but they carry an economic cost through dilution. Even after that adjustment, the conversion is strong; the remaining cash must still support dividends, repurchases, acquisitions, debt repayment and future investment.
What does an investor pay for McDonald’s today?
Free cash flow is the cash left after operations and capital spending. Its yield compares that cash with market value, but it is not money automatically paid to shareholders: McDonald’s can use it for dividends, repurchases, debt reduction or restaurant support. The table brings together the share price, valuation measures and cash yields that define today’s starting point.
McDonald’s earnings: how did the last quarter go?
Questions about McDonald’s (MCD) stock
Where will McDonald’s stock be in 5 years?
Our report's forecast goes to November 2029. By then it puts the shares between $210.64 in the bear case and $411.83 in the bull case, and at $301.04 with the three cases weighted by their chances. It makes no forecast past November 2029.
When is McDonald’s's next earnings date?
Results are expected on February 10, 2027. McDonald’s earnings: the next date and the last eight quarters →
Does McDonald’s pay a dividend?
Yes. At the November 3, 2026 close, a year of dividends came to 2.9 % of the share price (our report). McDonald’s dividend →
Who are McDonald’s's competitors?
Our report compares McDonald’s with Yum, Starbucks, Chipotle and Domino’s.
Why is this forecast different from analysts' price targets?
Analysts' price targets average the share prices that brokerage analysts expect. Our report builds its own three cases from McDonald’s's filings, gives each a chance and counts dividends.
More on McDonald’s (MCD)
More McDonald’s pages
McDonald’s's own filings
This page gives the forecast. The report gives the reasons.
The full report: an executive summary and 8 chapters, 21,208 words, 54 tables. Its first page opens here, no account needed.
How it is made: AI reads McDonald’s's filings, writes the report, checks the numbers against them and cites each source, 182 in this one. How we work · Corrections
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Information only, not investment advice. The forecast gives three cases with their chances; it promises no price. Prices are those of the date shown.