Pernod Ricard (RI.PA) stock forecast 2027–2029
What is the Pernod Ricard (RI.PA) stock forecast?
Our forecast for Pernod Ricard
€74.02by November 2027
€90.55by November 2029
From €72.16 at the November 10, 2026 close, that is a 9 % gain by 2027 and 46 % by 2029, dividends included.
It blends three cases for November 2027, € per share:
- Bear55.5030 % chance
- Base77.7750 % chance
- Bull92.4120 % chance
Our own forecast, built from Pernod Ricard's filings. It is not an average of analysts' price targets, so it can differ from them.
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Executive summary + 8 chapters · 19,933 words · 157 sources
Pernod Ricard (RI.PA) key numbers
Dividend yield is a year of dividends as a share of the price.
- 6.5 %dividend yield
- Feb 18, 2027next results, expected
Prices and ratios: our report, at the November 10, 2026 close.
Where could Pernod Ricard's shares be by 2029?
Our weighted price is €74.02 in November 2027, a 9% total return. It reaches €90.55 in November 2029, a 46% return. Both returns include dividends. Bear probability is 30%. Base is 50% and bull is 20%.
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Pernod Ricard?
The bear case says the recovery stalls. US and China demand remain weak after destocking, India’s shipment boost fades, and poor mix keeps margins under pressure. Aged inventory limits cash for debt reduction, so buybacks stay absent and the P/E contracts. The price reaches €55.50 in November 2027 and €45.34 in November 2029. Its probability is 30% because organic sales have declined for three years and the earnings bear path weakens again in 2028.
The bull case requires stronger sell-through, distributor restocking, durable India and RTD growth, better mix and faster debt reduction. RTD sales already rose organically 12%, but the bull case needs several improvements together. Buybacks resume only as cash and leverage improve. The price reaches €92.41 in 2027 and €139.80 in 2029. Its probability is 20%.
The forecast's table · base case, then bear / bull in brackets; EUR millions, per share in EUR, unless shown · November 2027
- Earnings1,510 (1,274 / 1,555)
- Shares (millions)252 (252 / 252)
- Dividends per share4.70 (4.70 / 4.70)
- Price to earnings13.00 (11.00 / 15.00)
Bull case, 20 % chance: if it goes right
€139.80 by November 2029, +115 % with dividends.
Bear case, 30 % chance: if it goes wrong
€45.34 by November 2029, −18 % with dividends.
The next test: results expected February 18, 2027
How much cash does Pernod Ricard really make?
Operations generated €1.579 billion. Capital spending was €391 million, while lease payments were €101 million. That left €1.087 billion before the €16 million economic cost assigned to stock-based pay; after it, the alternative bridge calls the result €1.071 billion.
What does an investor pay for Pernod Ricard shares?
Pernod Ricard sells branded spirits such as Jameson whiskey, Martell cognac and Absolut vodka. At €72.16 a share on 10 November 2026, the stock asks whether this valuable portfolio can recover its earnings, generate cash and reduce its debt.
Questions about Pernod Ricard (RI.PA) stock
Where will Pernod Ricard stock be in 5 years?
Our report's forecast goes to November 2029. By then it puts the shares between €45.34 in the bear case and €139.80 in the bull case, and at €90.55 with the three cases weighted by their chances. It makes no forecast past November 2029.
When is Pernod Ricard's next earnings date?
Results are expected on February 18, 2027.
Does Pernod Ricard pay a dividend?
Yes. At the November 10, 2026 close, a year of dividends came to 6.5 % of the share price (our report). Pernod Ricard dividend →
Who are Pernod Ricard's competitors?
Our report compares Pernod Ricard with Diageo, LVMH and Constellation Brands.
Why is this forecast different from analysts' price targets?
Analysts' price targets average the share prices that brokerage analysts expect. Our report builds its own three cases from Pernod Ricard's filings, gives each a chance and counts dividends.
More on Pernod Ricard (RI.PA)
More Pernod Ricard pages
Pernod Ricard's own filings
This page gives the forecast. The report gives the reasons.
The full report: an executive summary and 8 chapters, 19,933 words, 55 tables. Its first page opens here, no account needed.
How it is made: AI reads Pernod Ricard's filings, writes the report, checks the numbers against them and cites each source, 157 in this one. How we work · Corrections
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Information only, not investment advice. The forecast gives three cases with their chances; it promises no price. Prices are those of the date shown.