Barrick stock forecast
Barrick's weighted forecast points to C$66.27 in October 2027 and C$68.99 in October 2029, with 18% and 27% total returns. Barrick's forecast hinges on turning higher metal prices into durable cash while replacing depleted ounces and delivering projects without cost or access setbacks.
Where could Barrick's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is C$66.27 in October 2027, a total return of 18%. In October 2028, it is C$64.89, also an 18% return. By October 2029, it reaches C$68.99, a 27% return.
The October 2029 range runs from C$23.50 in the bear case to C$156.22 in the bull case. Today’s comparison price is C$57.24. The forecast assigns 30% to the bear case, 50% to the base case and 20% to the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 30.14 (-46 %) | 19.99 (-62 %) | 23.50 (-54 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 69.92 (+24 %) | 64.88 (+18 %) | 61.40 (+14 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 111.35 (+97 %) | 132.28 (+137 %) | 156.22 (+183 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 66.27 (+18 %) | 64.89 (+18 %) | 68.99 (+27 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Barrick?
The bear case gives US$6,053m in 2027 and falls to US$4,925m in 2028 because lower prices, higher costs and weaker production compound. It recovers to US$5,588m in 2029. The bull case reaches US$13,415m in 2027, US$14,597m in 2028 and US$15,876m in 2029, requiring high gold and copper prices, reliable mines and an on-time Lumwana ramp. The bear risk is grounded in four years of falling gold production and 2025 AISC above guidance.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 10,192 (6,053 / 13,415) | 9,644 (4,925 / 14,597) | 9,501 (5,588 / 15,876) |
| Shares (millions) | 1,610 (1,635 / 1,607) | 1,583 (1,630 / 1,551) | 1,558 (1,634 / 1,505) |
| Dividends per share | 0.85 (0.70 / 1.10) | 0.90 (0.55 / 1.30) | 0.95 (0.55 / 1.50) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 7.50 (5.50 / 9.00) | 7.30 (4.80 / 9.50) | 7.00 (5.20 / 10.00) |
| Net debt | -2,606 (-1,308 / -4,934) | -1,710 (769 / -5,414) | -660 (2,097 / -6,354) |
What this means. A negative net debt number means the company has more cash than borrowed money.
How much cash does Barrick really make?
Capital spending was substantial. Barrick’s reported free cash flow deducts mine investment from operating cash, while an analytical version also deducts lease payments and stock compensation. Stock pay requires care because some awards are cash-settled and the corporate expense does not cover every group charge.
Ownership is the decisive adjustment. Consolidated free cash flow was $3,868 million. After adding Barrick’s share of equity investees and removing cash belonging to non-controlling owners, attributable free cash flow was $2,837 million. That is the more relevant base for dividends.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 7,689 | 4,491 | 3,732 | 3,481 | 4,378 |
| − Capital spending | 3,821 | 3,174 | 3,086 | 3,049 | 2,435 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,856 | 1,303 | 633 | 412 | 1,923 |
| − Stock pay | 270 | 65 | 66 | 55 | 81 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,586 | 1,238 | 567 | 357 | 1,842 |
What this means. The company's free cash flow is higher because it leaves out lease payments, but we count those cash payments because the money has left the company.