TransDigm stock forecast
TransDigm's weighted price reaches $1,699.41 in October 2029, a 50% return including dividends. It hinges on cash generation.
Where could TransDigm's shares be by October 2029?
The forecast’s central case is a substantial, but not risk-free, gain. The weighted price reaches $1,421.43 in October 2027, a 25% return including dividends. It reaches $1,555.27 in October 2028, a 37% return. By October 2029, it reaches $1,699.41, a 50% return.
The last-date range is $852.53 in the bear case to $2,812.50 in the bull case. Today’s reference price is $1,139.34. The bear probability is 30%. The base probability is 50%. The bull probability is 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30% | 1030.96 (-10%) | 937.84 (-18%) | 852.53 (-25%) |
| Base | 50% | 1476.49 (+30%) | 1624.72 (+43%) | 1762.31 (+55%) |
| Bull | 20% | 1869.50 (+64%) | 2307.76 (+103%) | 2812.50 (+153%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 1421.43 (+25%) | 1555.27 (+37%) | 1699.41 (+50%) |
What this means. The Weighted row is the probability-based average of the Bear, Base, and Bull estimates, not a guaranteed share price.
What has to go right or wrong for TransDigm?
The base assumes about 9% annual revenue growth and margins recovering from 23.6% to 25.0%. The bear uses 5% growth and margins around 19%. The bull uses 12% growth and margins rising from 25.5% to 28.1%. These choices reflect nine-month net income of $1,519M, raised FY26 guidance for net income of $2,102M–$2,150M, and 17% commercial aftermarket growth in the latest quarter. The bear allows for inventory weakness, acquisition dilution and financing pressure; the bull requires strong demand and faster integration.
From October 2028 onward, cash generation is decisive. Strong free cash flow would support debt reduction, buybacks or acquisitions and defend the premium multiple. Weak cash generation, heavier debt service or pricing scrutiny would restrict capital allocation and compress valuation.
How much cash does TransDigm really make?
Operating cash flow was $2,038 million in fiscal 2025. After $222 million of capital spending, free cash flow was $1,816 million, below net income of $2,074 million. That difference does not make the profit unreal; it shows that accounting earnings and cash arrive at different times.
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,038 | 2,045 | 1,375 | 948 | 913 |
| − Capital spending | 222 | 165 | 139 | 119 | 105 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,816 | 1,880 | 1,236 | 829 | 808 |
| − Stock pay | 157 | 217 | 157 | 184 | 129 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,659 | 1,663 | 1,079 | 645 | 679 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 20.6% | 23.7% | 18.8% | 15.3% | 16.8% |
What this means. The company’s own free cash flow is higher because it adds back cash tied up in working capital, even though that cash has left the business for now.
What does an investor pay for TransDigm today?
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 1,139.34 |
| Market value (calculated) | 62,978.76 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 93,690.76 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 34.6x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.9% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.6% |
What this means. Price to book is not meaningful because the company owes more than the value of what it owns.