Cardinal Health stock forecast
The weighted forecast puts Cardinal Health's shares at $249.26 in October 2027, a negative 1% return with dividends. It hinges on sustained earnings growth and repeatable GMPD and acquired-platform returns.
Where could Cardinal Health's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast puts the shares at $249.26 in October 2027, a 1% loss including dividends. It reaches $294.24 in October 2029, an 18% gain. The cases carry 30% bear, 50% base and 20% bull probabilities.
The central case is modest near-term upside, with a wide outcome range by year three. The weighted price is $249.26 in October 2027, a negative 1% return with dividends. It rises to $270.81 in October 2028, an 8% return. By October 2029 it reaches $294.24, an 18% return. The October 2029 range runs from $178.35 in the bear case to $477.99 in the bull case. Today's price is $254.06.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 186.36 (-26 %) | 183.01 (-26 %) | 178.35 (-27 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 257.37 (+2 %) | 274.24 (+10 %) | 290.27 (+17 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 323.36 (+28 %) | 393.91 (+57 %) | 477.99 (+91 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 249.26 (-1 %) | 270.81 (+8 %) | 294.24 (+18 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Cardinal Health?
Earnings are the main source of value, and the base case assumes continued but moderating improvement. Management guides FY2027 adjusted diluted EPS to $12.40–$12.60. The supplied next-twelve-month EPS estimate is $14.07392, supporting $3,280M of normalized earnings. The base case then uses $3,670M and ends at $4,100M. This reflects Pharma profit growth, Other segment growth and better recurring contributions from specialty products, while excluding unusual items.
The bear case starts at $2,850M, then reaches $3,000M. It ends at $3,150M because generic erosion, weaker GLP-1 demand and lower post-refund GMPD profit offset specialty growth. The bull case starts at $3,500M and reaches $4,000M. It ends at $4,570M, requiring guidance to be exceeded, repeatable GMPD profits and successful integration of acquired platforms.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 3,280 (2,850 / 3,500) | 3,670 (3,000 / 4,000) | 4,100 (3,150 / 4,570) |
| Shares (millions) | 229 (229 / 227) | 228 (230 / 223) | 226 (230 / 220) |
| Dividends per share | 2.07 (2.06 / 2.10) | 2.11 (2.06 / 2.18) | 2.15 (2.06 / 2.26) |
| Price to earnings | 18.00 (15.00 / 21.00) | 17.00 (14.00 / 22.00) | 16.00 (13.00 / 23.00) |
How much cash does Cardinal Health really make?
Cardinal pays manufacturers and collects from pharmacies and health systems, but those events do not occur together. Working capital is the money temporarily tied up in receivables, inventory and payables. In fiscal 2026, accounts payable released $3.463 billion of cash, while receivables and inventory absorbed cash. The result was much more than accounting profit simply translated into dollars.
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 5,174 | 2,397 | 3,762 | 2,844 | 3,175 |
| − Capital spending | 649 | 547 | 511 | 481 | 387 |
| = Free cash flow | 4,525 | 1,850 | 3,251 | 2,363 | 2,788 |
| − Stock pay | 367 | 244 | 121 | 96 | 81 |
| = Real free cash flow | 4,158 | 1,606 | 3,130 | 2,267 | 2,707 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is usually higher because it leaves out certain unusual cash payments and other cash items that we count as money spent.