Targa Resources stock forecast
Targa Resources's weighted forecast puts the share price at $296.21 in October 2029. It hinges on project execution, utilization, cash conversion and leverage.
Where could Targa Resources's shares be by 2029?
Targa’s weighted forecast puts the share price at $296.21 in October 2029, a 6% total return, hinging on project execution, utilization, cash conversion and leverage. Management guides to $5,700–$5,900 million of 2026 adjusted EBITDA. It plans $5,000 million of net growth capital, at least 90% fee-based adjusted operating margin and a $5.00 annual common dividend per share.
The weighted price is $251.84 in October 2027, a 13% loss including dividends. It reaches $296.21 in October 2029, a 6% gain including dividends. The bear case has 25% probability and the base case 55%. The bull case has 20%. By October 2029, the bear case is $96.77, a 62% loss. The bull case is $517.91, an 82% gain.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | 153.84 (-46%) | 117.84 (-57%) | 96.77 (-62%) |
| Base | 55% | 265.99 (-8%) | 286.23 (+1%) | 306.25 (+9%) |
| Bull | 20% | 335.43 (+15%) | 416.21 (+45%) | 517.91 (+82%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 251.84 (-13%) | 270.13 (-5%) | 296.21 (+6%) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of all three cases, not a separate prediction or the most likely result.
What has to go right or wrong for Targa Resources?
EBITDA starts from the $5,800 million midpoint of 2026 guidance, supported by record volumes and the Stakeholder contribution already in the current base. The base case reaches $6,117 million in October 2027 and $6,754 million in October 2028. It reaches $7,375 million in October 2029. The bear row falls to $5,404 million, then recovers slowly to $5,738 million. The bull row reaches $6,275 million before rising to $8,192 million. These differences reflect fading marketing gains, Waha-related curtailments and construction risk on the downside, versus Permian growth and new plants on the upside.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 6,117 (5,404 / 6,275) | 6,754 (5,458 / 7,192) | 7,375 (5,738 / 8,192) |
| Shares (millions) | 214 (215 / 213) | 214 (216 / 212) | 214 (217 / 212) |
| Dividends per share | 5.00 (5.00 / 5.00) | 5.50 (5.00 / 6.25) | 6.05 (4.00 / 7.50) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 13.00 (10.50 / 15.00) | 12.50 (9.50 / 15.50) | 12.00 (8.50 / 16.00) |
| Net debt | 22,520 (23,648 / 22,558) | 23,098 (26,417 / 23,036) | 22,867 (27,813 / 21,384) |
How much cash does Targa Resources really make?
Adjusted free cash flow is Targa’s non-GAAP measure of cash after cash interest, cash taxes, maintenance capital and growth capital, with stated adjustments. It was positive at $433.2 million in the first half of 2026. This measure is useful because it comes closer to the cash left after financing and investment, but its classification choices still require review.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,917.4 | 3,649.7 | 3,211.6 | 2,380.8 | 2,302.9 |
| − Capital spending | 3,423.6 | 2,965.8 | 2,385.4 | 1,539.5 | 505.1 |
| = Free cash flow | 493.8 | 683.9 | 826.2 | 841.3 | 1,797.8 |
| − Stock pay | 69.5 | 63.2 | 62.4 | 57.5 | 59.2 |
| = Real free cash flow | 424.3 | 620.7 | 763.8 | 783.8 | 1,738.6 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 10.3% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow differs from ours because it leaves out changes in money tied up in stock and unpaid customer bills, while our count includes them; we also subtract share-based pay because it gives employees part of the company.
What does an investor pay for Targa Resources today?
Operating margins improved, but real free cash flow was only 2.5% of revenue in 2025. Real free cash flow per share fell from $7.61 in 2021 to $1.96 in 2025. At $294.90, the shares carry a 28.2x trailing P/E against a 0.8% free cash flow yield; forward P/E is 23.8x.