Yum stock forecast
Yum's weighted forecast is $141.19 in October 2027 and reaches $173.75 in October 2029. It hinges on Taco Bell traffic, franchisee economics, debt refinancing and the use of Pizza Hut proceeds.
Where could Yum's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast starts below today’s price but improves as Yum’s earnings and buybacks compound. The weighted price is $141.19 in October 2027, a 4% total loss including dividends. It reaches $156.79 in October 2028, an 8% gain, and $173.75 in October 2029, a 22% gain. The October 2029 range runs from $91.80 in the bear case to $263.30 in the bull case. Today’s reference price is $150.51.
The base case is the most likely path at 53%, followed by the bear case at 27% and the bull case at 20%. The wide range reflects uncertainty over Taco Bell traffic, franchisee economics, debt refinancing and how aggressively Yum uses Pizza Hut proceeds.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 107.86 (-26 %) | 99.69 (-30 %) | 91.80 (-33 %) |
| Base | 53 % | 144.87 (-2 %) | 163.06 (+13 %) | 181.70 (+27 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 176.46 (+19 %) | 217.25 (+49 %) | 263.30 (+82 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 141.19 (-4 %) | 156.79 (+8 %) | 173.75 (+22 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Yum?
The bear case holds earnings at $1,802 million through October 2028 before a small recovery to $1,824 million. It assumes weak Taco Bell traffic, discounting and lower franchisee returns. The bull case reaches $2,010 million first, then $2,232 million and $2,475 million as Taco Bell recovers, KFC expands profitably and Byte improves productivity. Continuing-brand system sales grew 7% and core operating profit grew 8% in the second quarter of 2026, supporting upside, but the latest earnings also contained a $359 million tax benefit that is excluded from all cases.
How much cash does Yum really make?
Working capital explains why cash and profit can diverge. Royalties may be recognized before Yum collects them, while tax timing and employee payments can shift cash between periods. Stock compensation creates another gap: Yum paid $70 million in stock-based pay in 2025. It is added back to operating cash, but shareholders bear dilution or the cost of repurchases.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,010 | 1,689 | 1,603 | 1,427 | 1,706 |
| − Capital spending | 371 | 257 | 285 | 279 | 230 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,639 | 1,432 | 1,318 | 1,148 | 1,476 |
| − Stock pay | 70 | 69 | 95 | 84 | 75 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,569 | 1,363 | 1,223 | 1,064 | 1,401 |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because paying employees with shares uses no cash but gives away part of the company.
What does an investor pay for Yum today?
The P/E ratio means price divided by earnings per share. A trailing P/E uses recent reported earnings; a forward P/E uses expected earnings. The forward multiple can be higher even when the share price is unchanged because its earnings denominator is smaller. That may reflect the loss of Pizza Hut’s profits or the removal of unusual benefits, rather than a sudden collapse in the restaurants.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 150.51 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 18.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 21.0x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.0% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.8% |
What this means. The price-to-book ratio is not meaningful because the company owes more than it owns, making its book value negative.