Ferguson stock forecast
The weighted forecast puts Ferguson’s share price at $265.04 in October 2027 and $324.21 in October 2029. It hinges on project shipments turning into collections, inventory and receivables releasing cash, and leverage moving toward the level at which buybacks resume.
Where could Ferguson’s shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast puts Ferguson’s share price at $265.04 in October 2027 and $291.44 in October 2028. It reaches $324.21 in October 2029.
The bear case has a 27% probability. The base case has a 53% probability. The bull case has a 20% probability, making gradual recovery the central expectation.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 218.10 (-4 %) | 211.95 (-5 %) | 210.37 (-5 %) |
| Base | 53 % | 265.51 (+16 %) | 293.59 (+30 %) | 328.85 (+47 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 327.18 (+43 %) | 393.07 (+73 %) | 465.59 (+107 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 265.04 (+16 %) | 291.44 (+29 %) | 324.21 (+45 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not another separate prediction.
What could go right or wrong for Ferguson?
The base path assumes recovery toward roughly 9% reported margins as existing operations improve and FloWorks contributes. The bear case gives $2,850 million, then $2,950 million and $3,100 million because housing weakness, delayed projects and integration costs persist. The bull case gives $3,400 million, then $3,750 million and $4,100 million because infrastructure, industrial demand and cross-selling lift both volume and margins. The base remains closest to management’s mid-single-digit sales outlook and normalized margin history.
The bear case assumes housing and discretionary renovation remain weak while industrial and infrastructure projects slip. FloWorks adds sales but not enough profit or cash to offset financing and integration costs. The price reaches $218.10 in October 2027 and $210.37 in October 2029. Its 27% probability reflects the possibility that weak demand, working-capital pressure and higher leverage arrive together. The June quarter’s cash shortfall makes that risk material.
How much cash does Ferguson really make?
Fiscal 2025 shows the difference. Operating cash flow was $1,908 million, and free cash flow after capital spending was $1,603 million. Ferguson’s own free-cash-flow figure also included asset-sale proceeds, while acquisitions remained a separate use of cash. Stock compensation is another economic cost that a stricter cash analysis may deduct.
| Jul 2025 | Jul 2024 | Jul 2023 | Jul 2022 | Jul 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,908 | 1,873 | 2,727 | 1,149 | 1,337 |
| − Capital spending | 305 | 372 | 441 | 290 | 241 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,603 | 1,501 | 2,286 | 859 | 1,096 |
| − Stock pay | 28 | 49 | 51 | 57 | 77 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,575 | 1,452 | 2,235 | 802 | 1,019 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.5% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is higher because it adds money from selling assets and businesses, while our count leaves that money out.
What does an investor pay for Ferguson today?
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 231.61 |
| Market value (calculated) | 44,805.58 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 49,272.58 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 21.5x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 18.4x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.5% |
What this means. The enterprise value is not fully current because it leaves out the later FloWorks purchase and the borrowing used to pay for it.