Li Auto (2015.HK) stock forecast 2027–2029
What is the Li Auto (2015.HK) stock forecast?
Our forecast for Li Auto
HK$55.93by November 2027
HK$70.46by November 2029
From HK$48.12 at the November 9, 2026 close, that is a 16 % gain by 2027 and 46 % by 2029, dividends included.
It blends three cases for November 2027, HK$ per share:
- Bear8.1535 % chance
- Base60.4747 % chance
- Bull13718 % chance
Our own forecast, built from Li Auto's filings. It is not an average of analysts' price targets, so it can differ from them.
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Executive summary + 8 chapters · 20,010 words · 147 sources
Li Auto (2015.HK) key numbers
Dividend yield is a year of dividends as a share of the price.
- 0.0 %dividend yield
- Dec 1, 2026next results, expected
- RMB 25.7 billionrevenue in the quarter to Jun 2026, −15 % on a year earlier
Prices and ratios: our report, at the November 9, 2026 close. Revenue: the company's own figures.
Li Auto analyst recommendations
Of the 9 analysts FMP tracks on November 14, 2026, 9 rate Li Auto buy or strong buy, 0 hold, 0 sell.
- 9 Buy or strong buy
- 0 Hold
- 0 Sell or strong sell
FMP's consensus label: “Buy”.
What analysts expect Li Auto to earn per share, on average:
- Fiscal year ending December 2026: -1.90 CNY (6 analysts)
- Fiscal year ending December 2027: 0.70 CNY (6 analysts)
Analyst data: FMP, November 14, 2026. This is what analysts publish, not a MyStockButler recommendation.
Where could Li Auto's shares be by November 2029?
Our weighted value is HK$55.93 in November 2027, a 16% return. It is HK$70.46 in November 2029, a 46% return. The returns include dividends. The bear case carries 35% probability. The base case carries 47%. The bull case carries 18%.
What has to go right or wrong for Li Auto's forecast?
Base EBIT is CNY9 billion in FY2030. Revenue is CNY180 billion with a 5% margin, close to Li Auto’s 2024 operating margin of about 4.9%. The bear case uses CNY120 billion revenue and a negative 3% margin because price competition and weak EREV economics persist. The bull case uses CNY230 billion revenue and a 7% margin because the L-series, i-series and MEGA scale with better mix and utilization. The June 2026 vehicle margin of 9.4% and October delivery decline support caution.
The forecast's table · base case, then bear / bull in brackets; CNY millions, per share in CNY, unless shown · FY2030
- Operating profit (EBIT)9,000 (-3,600 / 16,100)
- Shares (millions)2,089 (2,173 / 1,992)
- Exit multiple (enterprise value to operating profit (ebit))9.00 (5.00 / 14.00)
- Net debt-76,900 (-41,400 / -97,000)
Bull case, 18 % chance: if it goes right
HK$168.82 by November 2029, +251 % with dividends.
Bear case, 35 % chance: if it goes wrong
HK$10.78 by November 2029, −78 % with dividends.
The next test: results expected December 1, 2026
Deliveries of vehicles, Quarter to Sep 2026: 95,000–100,000, guided on Aug 26, 2026.
How much cash does Li Auto really make?
A stricter “real free cash flow” measure deducts stock pay as an economic cost and was negative RMB14.74 billion. Stock pay is not a cash payment in that year, but it can dilute owners or create a future buyback cost. One supplier accounted for more than 10% of purchases in 2025, creating an additional unanswered question about pricing and continuity.
What does Li Auto's stock price pay for?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, divides the value of the shares by annual profit attributable to shareholders. Li Auto’s recent and expected P/Es are not meaningful because earnings are too weak and unstable. In 2025, operating loss was RMB521.1 million, but net income was RMB1.1 billion. Interest and investment income added RMB1.9 billion that year, which means the company could report an overall profit despite an operating loss.
Enterprise value, or EV, estimates what an investor is paying for the operating business after accounting for debt and cash. Using June 30, 2026 balances, Li Auto reported RMB87.5 billion in cash and investments and about RMB7.2 billion in borrowings. That left roughly RMB80.3 billion of net cash, so the illustrative EV was only about RMB4.7 billion after converting the equity value. The cash protects the business, but it is not automatically available for dividends: Li Auto must fund suppliers, employees, leases, inventories, research and charging infrastructure.
Li Auto earnings: how did the last quarter go?
Questions about Li Auto (2015.HK) stock
Where will Li Auto stock be in 5 years?
Our report's forecast goes to November 2029. By then it puts the shares between HK$10.78 in the bear case and HK$168.82 in the bull case, and at HK$70.46 with the three cases weighted by their chances. It makes no forecast past November 2029.
When is Li Auto's next earnings date?
Results are expected on December 1, 2026. Li Auto earnings: the next date and the last eight quarters →
Does Li Auto pay a dividend?
Yes. At the November 9, 2026 close, a year of dividends came to 0.0 % of the share price (our report).
Who are Li Auto's competitors?
Our report compares Li Auto with Tesla.
Why is this forecast different from analysts' price targets?
Analysts' price targets average the share prices that brokerage analysts expect. Our report builds its own three cases from Li Auto's filings, gives each a chance and counts dividends.
More on Li Auto (2015.HK)
More Li Auto pages
Li Auto's own filings
This page gives the forecast. The report gives the reasons.
The full report: an executive summary and 8 chapters, 20,010 words, 56 tables. Its first page opens here, no account needed.
How it is made: AI reads Li Auto's filings, writes the report, checks the numbers against them and cites each source, 147 in this one. How we work · Corrections
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Information only, not investment advice. The forecast gives three cases with their chances; it promises no price. Prices are those of the date shown.