Tesla stock forecast
The weighted price is $336.44 in October 2029, a 10% loss. The outcome hinges on vehicle economics, storage growth and paid software becoming material.
Where could Tesla's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is $284.52 in October 2027, a 24% loss including dividends. It rises to $300.93 in October 2028, still a 20% loss. By October 2029, it reaches $336.44, a 10% loss.
The bear case has a 30% probability. The base case has a 55% probability. The bull case has a 15% probability. The October 2029 range runs from $63.43 to $971.74. Today's reference price is $375.00.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 144.10 (-62 %) | 78.44 (-79 %) | 63.43 (-83 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 313.03 (-17 %) | 317.45 (-15 %) | 312.09 (-17 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 460.83 (+23 %) | 685.31 (+83 %) | 971.74 (+159 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 284.52 (-24 %) | 300.93 (-20 %) | 336.44 (-10 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Tesla?
EBITDA rises from $17,500M in October 2027 to $25,000M in October 2029, with $21,000M in between. The path assumes vehicle recovery, continued storage growth and better fixed-cost absorption. Energy gross profit rose from $2,640M to $3,802M, but vehicle deliveries fell 8.6% in 2025 and automotive gross margin excluding credits stayed at 15.4%. The bear row falls from $12,500M to $10,000M before recovering to $11,000M, while the bull row rises from $20,000M to $35,000M as battery constraints ease and higher-margin software becomes material.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 17,500 (12,500 / 20,000) | 21,000 (10,000 / 27,000) | 25,000 (11,000 / 35,000) |
| Shares (millions) | 3,989 (4,009 / 3,969) | 4,029 (4,069 / 3,989) | 4,069 (4,130 / 4,009) |
| Dividends per share | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.00) | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.00) | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.00) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 70.00 (45.00 / 90.00) | 60.00 (32.00 / 100) | 50.00 (25.00 / 110) |
| Net debt | -23,682 (-15,182 / -29,182) | -18,982 (818 / -33,782) | -19,982 (13,018 / -45,782) |
How much cash does Tesla really make?
The weighted price is $284.52 in October 2027 and $336.44 in October 2029. That implies a 24% loss including dividends by October 2027 and a 10% loss by October 2029. The bear case is $63.43 and the base case is $312.09. The bull case is $971.74; the probabilities are 30% bear, 55% base and 15% bull. Tesla’s real free cash flow was 3.6% of revenue, while stock pay was $0.80 per share in 2025.
Stock compensation creates another gap. Tesla adds this noncash expense back because shares, rather than cash, go to employees. But shareholders still bear an economic cost through dilution. Deducting $2,825 million from reported free cash flow gives a stricter view, without making Tesla’s official measure mathematically wrong.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 14,747 | 14,923 | 13,256 | 14,724 | 11,497 |
| − Capital spending | 8,527 | 11,342 | 8,899 | 7,172 | 6,514 |
| = Free cash flow | 6,220 | 3,581 | 4,357 | 7,552 | 4,983 |
| − Stock pay | 2,825 | 1,999 | 1,812 | 1,560 | 2,121 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,395 | 1,582 | 2,545 | 5,992 | 2,862 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 3.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% |