LVMH stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: LVMH's weighted share-price forecast is €380.29 in October 2027 and €450.90 in October 2029, excluding dividends. It hinges on a gradual Fashion & Leather Goods recovery, sustained margins and better Chinese demand.
Where could LVMH's shares be by October 2029?
The forecast sees limited near-term upside but a better risk-reward balance by October 2029. The weighted share price is €380.29 in October 2027, excluding dividends, equivalent to a 1% total return after including dividends. It reaches €408.79 in October 2028, or 12%, and €450.90 in October 2029, or 26%.
The range remains wide. At October 2029, the bear case reaches €229.74. The bull ceiling is €747.37. Today’s price is €387.80. The bear, base and bull probabilities are 30%, 52% and 18%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 280.00 (-25 %) | 246.87 (-31 %) | 229.74 (-33 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 394.46 (+5 %) | 425.16 (+16 %) | 475.87 (+33 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 506.51 (+34 %) | 631.36 (+70 %) | 747.37 (+104 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 380.29 (+1 %) | 408.79 (+12 %) | 450.90 (+26 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for LVMH?
The bear case gives €9,875 million first and then keeps earnings near €9,360 million and €9,420 million. It assumes Fashion & Leather Goods remains weak, despite generating about 74% of recurring operating profit, and that fixed store and workshop costs hold margins down. The bull case reaches €11,830 million, €13,350 million and €14,415 million because new collections, stronger Chinese spending and operating leverage restore both sales and margins. The latest quarter, however, showed Fashion & Leather Goods down 5%, so this requires evidence not yet visible.
How much cash does LVMH really make?
LVMH’s own free-cash-flow measure is narrower than a fuller owner’s measure. It includes broader operating investment, while an analytical “real” measure also charges stock-based compensation as a cost borne by shareholders. Lower investment may reflect discipline after expansion, or spending postponed into future years. LVMH does not separate maintenance from expansion spending.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 18,874 | 18,924 | 18,400 | 17,833 | 18,648 |
| − Capital spending | 3,851 | 4,715 | 6,807 | 4,397 | 2,675 |
| − Lease payments | 2,974 | 2,915 | 2,818 | 2,751 | 2,453 |
| = Free cash flow | 12,049 | 11,294 | 8,775 | 10,685 | 13,520 |
| − Stock pay | 165 | 191 | 117 | 132 | 132 |
| = Real free cash flow | 11,884 | 11,103 | 8,658 | 10,553 | 13,388 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is usually lower because it subtracts intangible purchases that our count leaves out; in 2021, it is slightly higher because it adds back 11 million euros.
What does an investor pay for LVMH today?
The price-to-earnings ratio shows what investors pay for each euro of recent profit: 17.68x on the last twelve months and 17.58x on the next twelve. That points to little near-term earnings growth. The 6.3% free-cash-flow yield looks more generous, but cash can improve when inventory or investment falls. In 2025, inventories absorbed €1.315 billion while operating investment was €4.567 billion.
| Today (Oct 22, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 387.80 |
| Market value (calculated) | 190,688.16 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 198,971.16 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 17.68x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 17.58x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 6.3% |
What this means. The share price is from October 22, but some calculations use company information from June or September, so the figures are not all from the same date.