CR Power (0836.HK) stock forecast 2027–2029
What is the CR Power (0836.HK) stock forecast?
Our forecast for CR Power
HK$15.52by November 2027
HK$19.93by November 2029
From HK$19.65 at the November 2, 2026 close, that is a 16 % loss by 2027 and a 15 % gain by 2029, dividends included.
It blends three cases for November 2027, HK$ per share:
- Bear1.4430 % chance
- Base18.6455 % chance
- Bull32.2515 % chance
Our own forecast, built from CR Power's filings. It is not an average of analysts' price targets, so it can differ from them.
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Executive summary + 8 chapters · 19,781 words · 121 sources
CR Power (0836.HK) key numbers
Dividend yield is a year of dividends as a share of the price.
- 5.7 %dividend yield
- HK$55.0 billionrevenue in the quarter to Jun 2026, +9 % on a year earlier
Prices and ratios: our report, at the November 2, 2026 close. Revenue: the company's own figures.
Where could CR Power's shares be by 2029?
The weighted outcome is modest, but the range is exceptionally wide. The forecast gives a weighted price of HK$15.52 in November 2027, HK$16.76 in November 2028 and HK$19.93 in November 2029. Including dividends, those are returns of negative 16%, negative 6% and positive 15% from today’s HK$19.65.
By November 2029, the modeled range runs from HK$0.00 in the bear case to HK$53.97 in the bull case. The probabilities are 30% bear, 55% base and 15% bull, so the central expectation is continued construction with only gradual cash conversion.
What has to go right for CR Power—and what could go wrong?
EBITDA is restrained in the base case because the fleet is growing, but recent pricing and utilization evidence argues against a rapid margin recovery. Base EBITDA is HK$40.5 billion in November 2027 and HK$42.0 billion in November 2028. It reaches HK$43.5 billion in 2029. The bear row falls to HK$35.5 billion in 2028 before a limited recovery, while the bull row reaches HK$51.0 billion by 2029. The evidence is mixed: coal tariffs fell 7.0% while standard coal costs rose 1.0%, and renewable curtailment increased. The construction pipeline supports later growth, but commissioning must turn capacity into profitable generation.
The view would move toward the bear case if coal tariffs fall or fuel costs rise during 2027–2029, especially at contract renewals. Weak wind and solar output, higher curtailment or subsidy reversals would add pressure. Capex and interest exceeding operating cash would keep debt high and dividends weak.
The forecast's table · base case, then bear / bull in brackets; HKD millions, per share in HKD, unless shown · November 2027
- EBITDA40,500 (37,000 / 43,000)
- Shares (millions)5,177 (5,227 / 5,154)
- Dividends per share0.99 (0.70 / 1.15)
- Enterprise value to ebitda7.00 (5.50 / 8.00)
- Net debt186,975 (195,995 / 177,775)
Bull case, 15 % chance: if it goes right
HK$53.97 by November 2029, +194 % with dividends.
Bear case, 30 % chance: if it goes wrong
HK$0.00 by November 2029, −91 % with dividends.
How much cash does CR Power really make?
CR Power’s plants produce substantial operating cash, but construction, lease payments and interest leave a real cash deficit after investment.
CR Power earnings: how did the last quarter go?
Questions about CR Power (0836.HK) stock
Where will CR Power stock be in 5 years?
Our report's forecast goes to November 2029. By then it puts the shares between HK$0.00 in the bear case and HK$53.97 in the bull case, and at HK$19.93 with the three cases weighted by their chances. It makes no forecast past November 2029.
Does CR Power pay a dividend?
Yes. At the November 2, 2026 close, a year of dividends came to 5.7 % of the share price (our report). CR Power dividend →
Who are CR Power's competitors?
Our report compares CR Power with Shenhua.
Why is this forecast different from analysts' price targets?
Analysts' price targets average the share prices that brokerage analysts expect. Our report builds its own three cases from CR Power's filings, gives each a chance and counts dividends.
More on CR Power (0836.HK)
More CR Power pages
CR Power's own filings
This page gives the forecast. The report gives the reasons.
The full report: an executive summary and 8 chapters, 19,781 words, 54 tables. Its first page opens here, no account needed.
How it is made: AI reads CR Power's filings, writes the report, checks the numbers against them and cites each source, 121 in this one. How we work · Corrections
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Information only, not investment advice. The forecast gives three cases with their chances; it promises no price. Prices are those of the date shown.