CSPC (1093.HK) stock forecast 2027–2029
What is the CSPC (1093.HK) stock forecast?
Our forecast for CSPC
HK$4.68by November 2027
HK$6.35by November 2029
From HK$8.36 at the November 4, 2026 close, that is a 40 % loss by 2027 and 12 % by 2029, dividends included.
It blends three cases for November 2027, HK$ per share:
- Bear2.9428% chance
- Base4.6653% chance
- Bull7.3319% chance
Our own forecast, built from CSPC's filings. It is not an average of analysts' price targets, so it can differ from them.
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Executive summary + 8 chapters · 20,109 words · 166 sources
Where could CSPC's shares be by 2029?
The forecast’s central result is negative, but the range is wide. The weighted price is HK$4.68 in November 2027, a 40% loss including dividends. It is HK$5.37 in November 2028, a 28% loss. It reaches HK$6.35 in November 2029, still a 12% loss.
The 2029 range is HK$1.88 to HK$13.84. Today’s price is HK$8.36. The base case is most likely at 53%. The bear case has a 28% probability. The bull case has a 19% probability.
What has to go right or wrong for CSPC?
Earnings are the main fault line. The base case starts at RMB3,790 million and reaches RMB4,060 million in the next window. It ends at RMB4,500 million. This assumes revenue rising from RMB26,500 million to RMB30,000 million, with margins improving from 14.3% to 15.0%, as finished-drug sales recover gradually.
The bear case starts at RMB3,200 million and falls to RMB2,832 million. It ends at RMB2,632 million because procurement cuts and weak launches overwhelm volume gains. The bull case starts at RMB4,455 million and reaches RMB5,250 million. It ends at RMB6,013 million if approvals, hospital access and product mix all improve.
The forecast's table · base case, then bear / bull in brackets; CNY millions, per share in CNY, unless shown · November 2027
- Earnings3,790 (3,200 / 4,455)
- Shares (millions)11,486 (11,532 / 11,428)
- Dividends per share0.27 (0.22 / 0.30)
- Price to earnings12.00 (9.00 / 16.00)
Bull case, 19% chance: if it goes right
HK$13.84 by November 2029, +80 % with dividends.
Bear case, 28% chance: if it goes wrong
HK$1.88 by November 2029, −69 % with dividends.
How much cash does CSPC really make?
This memo’s free-cash-flow measure deducts capital spending, lease payments and interest. This memo’s “real free cash flow” also treats the share-pay line as an extra allowance for compensation, but a credit is not cash received. The measure does not separately deduct RMB320.25 million spent on intangible assets, and the accounts do not distinguish maintenance investment from expansion.
Questions about CSPC (1093.HK) stock
Where will CSPC stock be in 5 years?
Our report's forecast goes to November 2029. By then it puts the shares between HK$1.88 in the bear case and HK$13.84 in the bull case, and at HK$6.35 with the three cases weighted by their chances. It makes no forecast past November 2029.
Does CSPC pay a dividend?
Yes. At the November 4, 2026 close, a year of dividends came to 3.5 % of the share price (our report). CSPC dividend →
Why is this forecast different from analysts' price targets?
Analysts' price targets average the share prices that brokerage analysts expect. Our report builds its own three cases from CSPC's filings, gives each a chance and counts dividends.
More on CSPC (1093.HK)
More CSPC pages
This page gives the forecast. The report gives the reasons.
The full report: an executive summary and 8 chapters, 20,109 words, 52 tables. Its first page opens here, no account needed.
How it is made: AI reads CSPC's filings, writes the report, checks the numbers against them and cites each source, 166 in this one. How we work · Corrections
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Information only, not investment advice. The forecast gives three cases with their chances; it promises no price. Prices are those of the date shown.