Dow earnings: date, guidance and results
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Dow's next results are expected on January 28, 2027. Watch whether Dow turns its promised savings into recurring cash.
What has Dow guided for 2026 and 2027?
Dow’s promise is to improve costs it controls, but its earnings still depend on chemical prices. Dow makes chemicals and plastic materials, including polyethylene resin used by packaging manufacturers. Its “Transform to Outperform” program targets $700 million of growth and productivity benefits in 2026 and $2 billion of total uplift by year-end 2027. Across the broader program, earlier reductions and asset actions, management guides to $1.3 billion of net self-help benefits in each of 2026 and 2027. These descriptions overlap, so they should not be added together.
For the quarter ending December 2026, Dow guides to $1.5 billion of operating EBITDA, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization after excluded items. The guidance includes $100 million of sequential self-help benefits and assumes a $0.02-per-pound improvement in integrated polyethylene margins. That assumption depends partly on market conditions, not just execution.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CapEx — 2026 | Year to Dec 2026 | 2,500 | 2,500 | Oct 22, 2026 |
| CapEx — 2027 | Year to Dec 2027 | 2,500 | 2,500 | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Transform to Outperform — growth and productivity benefits | Year to Dec 2026 | 700 | 700 | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Transform to Outperform — total uplift | By year-end 2027 | 2,000 | 2,000 | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Self-help — net benefits — 2026 | Year to Dec 2026 | 1,300 | 1,300 | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Self-help — net benefits — 2027 | Year to Dec 2027 | 1,300 | 1,300 | Oct 22, 2026 |
What this means. A blank high estimate does not mean information is missing; it means the company expects at least the low amount.
Has Dow kept its past promises?
Dow has delivered visible restructuring milestones. It initially targeted $300 million of cost savings during 2025 and reported more than $400 million delivered. By September 16, 2026, approximately 70% of the planned role reductions had been implemented, and management said the earlier $1 billion cost program was complete at the October 22 results call.
What has Dow's revenue and profit done over the last eight quarters?
September was weaker than June on revenue, margin, operating income and EPS. The sequence therefore shows a sharp recovery from the late-2025 trough followed by a partial retreat, not yet a steadily rising earnings path.
| Sep 2026 | Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11,267 | 12,092 | 9,794 | 9,460 | 9,973 | 10,104 | 10,431 | 10,405 |
| Gross margin | 12.2% | 17.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 9.0% |
| Operating income | 741 | 882 | -31 | -1,044 | 131 | -606 | -179 | 270 |
| Net income | 458 | 721 | -533 | -1,543 | 62 | -835 | -307 | -53 |
| EPS, diluted | 0.62 | 0.99 | -0.74 | -2.15 | 0.08 | -1.18 | -0.44 | -0.08 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,096 | 656 | 603 | -357 | 524 | -1,170 | -611 | -2 |
What this means. Free cash flow is not the same as profit: it is the cash left after day-to-day cash and equipment spending, so it can be positive even when net income is negative.
What should investors watch in Dow's next results?
The decisive tests are whether savings become recurring cash and whether the NOVA recovery becomes permanently available. For the quarter ending December 2026, Dow must show operating EBITDA near guidance while making the $700 million transformation benefit and 4,500 role reductions visible in the results.