ExxonMobil stock forecast
The weighted forecast puts ExxonMobil at $207.51 in October 2027, including dividends, against today’s $168.56. It hinges on Guyana and Permian output ramps reliably, Pioneer integration delivers the targeted $4 billion of annual synergies, and stronger operating cash flow sustains buybacks and dividend growth.
Where could ExxonMobil's shares be in each forecast year?
The weighted forecast puts ExxonMobil at $207.51 in October 2027, including dividends, against today’s $168.56. That is a 26% return. The weighted price reaches $221.82 in October 2028, a 37% return, and $243.08 in October 2029, a 52% return.
The October 2029 range is $122.97 to $392.14. Today’s share price is $168.56. The bear case receives 30% probability. The base case receives 55%. The bull case receives 15%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 128.96 (-21 %) | 116.76 (-26 %) | 122.97 (-20 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 227.87 (+38 %) | 247.28 (+52 %) | 267.95 (+67 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 289.99 (+74 %) | 338.57 (+106 %) | 392.14 (+140 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 207.51 (+26 %) | 221.82 (+37 %) | 243.08 (+52 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for ExxonMobil?
The base EBITDA path starts at $92 billion in October 2027 and reaches $100 billion in October 2029. The intervening value is $96 billion. The starting point is anchored to the supplied NTM EPS estimate of $11.3578, converted into roughly $47.7 billion of net income before adding estimated taxes and D&A. The path then grows as Guyana and Permian volumes rise, costs improve and chemicals recover. The bear case starts at $68 billion, falls to $65 billion, then recovers to $67 billion because weaker prices, refining margins and disruptions overwhelm volume growth. The bull case rises from $105 billion to $119 billion as production ramps, Pioneer synergies arrive and margins strengthen. ExxonMobil’s proxy fell from $101.8 billion in 2022 to $67.3 billion in 2025, supporting this wide range.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 92,000 (68,000 / 105,000) | 96,000 (65,000 / 112,000) | 100,000 (67,000 / 119,000) |
| Shares (millions) | 3,959 (3,997 / 3,937) | 3,874 (3,941 / 3,831) | 3,795 (3,887 / 3,732) |
| Dividends per share | 4.12 (4.12 / 4.12) | 4.24 (4.12 / 4.32) | 4.36 (4.12 / 4.52) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 10.00 (8.00 / 11.00) | 10.00 (7.50 / 11.50) | 10.00 (7.50 / 12.00) |
| Net debt | 17,875 (28,536 / 13,320) | 2,035 (27,338 / -9,044) | -16,869 (24,512 / -35,466) |
How much cash does ExxonMobil really make?
Stock compensation is another economic deduction. Issuing shares is not a current cash payment, but it gives employees part of the business. After stock pay and payments to subsidiary minority owners, the analytical remainder was below the company’s distributions through dividends and repurchases.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 51,970 | 55,022 | 55,369 | 76,797 | 48,129 |
| Capital spending | 28,358 | 24,306 | 21,919 | 18,407 | 12,076 |
| Free cash flow (calculated) | 23,612 | 30,716 | 33,450 | 58,390 | 36,053 |
| Stock-based pay | 1,000 | 800 | 600 | 648 | 612 |
| Real free cash flow (after stock pay) (calculated) | 22,612 | 29,916 | 32,850 | 57,742 | 35,441 |
| Free cash flow left for shareholders (calculated) | 21,677 | 29,258 | 32,319 | 57,475 | 35,217 |
What does an investor pay today for ExxonMobil?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, compares the share price with recent profit. A high oil price can enlarge earnings without making Exxon more productive, so a low P/E may reflect a temporary commodity surge. Normalized earnings ask what profit might look like under comparable oil prices and margins. ROCE, or return on capital employed, adds a harder test: how much operating profit the company earns from the money tied up in wells, refineries and plants. Exxon’s reported 2025 ROCE was 9.3%.