LyondellBasell stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: LyondellBasell’s weighted scenario is $47.09 in October 2027. It hinges on durable midcycle cash generation.
Where could LyondellBasell’s shares go?
The weighted forecast is weak in the first year but improves materially by the third. The weighted price is $47.09 in October 2027, a 27% loss with dividends. It reaches $62.59 in October 2028, almost flat against today’s $68.64. By October 2029, it reaches $80.54, a 28% gain with dividends.
The final-date range is wide: $42.28 in the bear case and $151.25 in the bull case. The bear receives 30% and the base case 55%. The bull case receives 15%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 16.65 (-72 %) | 26.92 (-55 %) | 42.28 (-32 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 52.83 (-19 %) | 67.08 (+6 %) | 82.13 (+32 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 86.95 (+31 %) | 117.49 (+80 %) | 151.25 (+134 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 47.09 (-27 %) | 62.59 (-1 %) | 80.54 (+28 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average possible share price after giving each case its stated chance of happening.
What has to go right for LyondellBasell?
Operating profit is the central earnings assumption. The base case rises from $2.9 billion in October 2027 to $3.1 billion in 2028. It reaches $3.3 billion in 2029, based on roughly $32 billion–$33 billion of revenue and normal-cycle margins.
The bear case starts at $2.0 billion and reaches $2.2 billion in the second year. It ends at $2.5 billion because oversupply keeps margins below normal. The bull case starts at $3.5 billion and reaches $3.9 billion in 2028. It reaches $4.3 billion only if utilization, spreads and reliability improve together. Global PP capacity rose about 7 million tonnes in 2025 while demand rose about 2 million tonnes, supporting the downside case.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal operating profit | 2,900 (2,000 / 3,500) | 3,100 (2,200 / 3,900) | 3,300 (2,500 / 4,300) |
| Shares (millions) | 324 (325 / 323) | 324 (326 / 322) | 325 (328 / 321) |
| Dividends per share | 2.76 (2.76 / 2.76) | 2.76 (1.38 / 3.00) | 3.00 (0.00 / 3.45) |
| Enterprise value to normal operating profit | 8.50 (7.00 / 10.00) | 9.00 (7.50 / 11.00) | 9.50 (8.00 / 12.00) |
| Net debt | 7,549 (8,594 / 6,897) | 6,154 (7,718 / 5,046) | 4,682 (6,145 / 3,020) |
How much cash does LyondellBasell really make?
Capital spending then makes the picture stricter. LYB spent $1.878 billion on capital expenditure in 2025, and approximately 65% supported sustaining needs such as turnarounds and safety work. Cash after that upkeep was much lower than operating cash alone.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| − Stock pay | 91 | 91 | 91 | 70 | 66 |
What this means. We subtract stock pay even though it uses no cash because giving employees shares reduces existing investors’ ownership of the company.