CPKC earnings: guidance, results and watchpoints
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: CPKC's next results are expected on January 27, 2027. Watch whether cash remains after maintaining the railway and servicing debt.
What has CPKC guided for 2026?
For 2026, management guides to mid-single-digit revenue-ton-mile growth and low-double-digit core adjusted diluted EPS growth. The EPS goal begins with 2025 core adjusted EPS of $4.61, while planned capital expenditure is $2.65 billion. The plan also includes a $441 million benefit recovery, largely connected with pension and benefit plans. That is an accounting benefit, not an equal amount of new cash from hauling freight.
| The period guided | Low | High | The date it was given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core adjusted diluted EPS growth (%) | FY 2026 | Jan 28, 2026 | ||
| Volume growth, as measured in Revenue Ton Miles (%) | FY 2026 | Jan 28, 2026 | ||
| Capital expenditures | FY 2026 | 2,650 | 2,650 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Core adjusted effective tax rate (%) | FY 2026 | 24.8% | 24.8% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Other components of net periodic benefit recovery | FY 2026 | 441 | 441 | Jan 28, 2026 |
What this means. The blank ranges for earnings growth and shipping volume are intentional: the company gave only rough descriptions, not exact percentages.
Has CPKC kept its promises?
Management’s forecast record makes the target something to test. Its scorecard records two promises kept out of five, and it has reduced EPS expectations in several earlier years. In 2025, it lowered its range and finished below it. The fourth quarter will show whether the current promise holds.
| What management forecast | Checked | Above | Within | Below |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted diluted EPS growth / core adjusted combined diluted EPS growth | 4 years | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Capital expenditures | 4 years | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Other components of net periodic benefit recovery | 4 years | 3 | 0 | 1 |
What is CPKC's revenue and profit trend?
The September 2026 quarter brought more traffic and better operating income, but fuel and tax charges absorbed much of the gain below the line.
| Sep 2026 | Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,219 | 4,164 | 3,701 | 3,923 | 3,661 | 3,699 | 3,795 | 3,874 |
| Operating income | 1,487 | 1,472 | 1,258 | 1,613 | 1,336 | 1,343 | 1,317 | 1,560 |
| Net income | 917 | 1,024 | 846 | 1,077 | 920 | 1,234 | 910 | 1,201 |
| EPS, diluted | 1.04 | 1.15 | 0.94 | 1.20 | 1.01 | 1.33 | 0.97 | 1.28 |
| Cash from operations | 1,550 | 1,726 | 976 | 1,524 | 1,274 | 1,355 | 1,156 | 1,704 |
| − Capital spending | 618 | 766 | 669 | 795 | 867 | 755 | 723 | 751 |
What this means. These are three-month amounts, not full-year amounts, even though some row descriptions say “year.”
What should you watch in CPKC's next results?
Year-end results should show whether CPKC met its volume and earnings promises, what capital actually cost, and whether it changed the pace of buybacks. Even a strong traffic headline matters less than the cash left after maintaining the railway and servicing debt.