Barclays stock forecast
Barclays' weighted forecast is 491.82 GBp in October 2027, with a 16% total return including dividends. It hinges on stronger recurring earnings rebuilding capital while funding both growth and shareholder returns.
Where could Barclays' shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast is 491.82 GBp in October 2027, a 16% total return including dividends, and 620.67 GBp in October 2029, a 53% total return. It assigns 25% probability to the bear case, 55% to the base case and 20% to the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 388.29 (-9 %) | 382.72 (-8 %) | 390.43 (-3 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 503.83 (+19 %) | 568.90 (+37 %) | 638.10 (+57 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 588.22 (+38 %) | 710.70 (+70 %) | 860.56 (+110 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 491.82 (+16 %) | 550.72 (+33 %) | 620.67 (+53 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Barclays?
The bear case requires credit losses, costs and capital demands to overwhelm the benefit of continued profitability.
The bull case requires recurring income, efficiency and credit quality to improve together.
What does Barclays earn and give back?
Return on tangible equity, or RoTE, measures attributable profit against average tangible equity. Divisional returns sharpen the Group picture: Barclays UK and UK Corporate Bank each earned more than 20% in the first half of 2026, while the Investment Bank earned 15.5% on £29.9bn of allocated tangible equity.
The 2025 dividend was 8.60p per share. Barclays announced £3.7bn of distributions, including £2.5bn of buybacks. After a later £1bn buyback, pro-forma year-end CET1 fell to 14.0%.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 42.30 | 34.80 | 26.90 | 29.80 | 35.60 |
| − Dividends, per share | 8.31 | 8.00 | 7.61 | 6.09 | 2.94 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 15.35 | 11.53 | 7.91 | 8.94 | 6.89 |
| = Kept, per share | 18.63 | 15.29 | 11.37 | 14.74 | 25.79 |
What does an investor pay for Barclays?
| Today (Oct 12, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 437.60 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 8.8x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 6.8x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 0.9x |
| Price to tangible book (calculated) | 1.0x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.0% |