HSBC stock forecast
HSBC's probability-weighted forecast is 1168.75 GBp in October 2027, 1200.96 GBp in October 2028 and 1228.74 GBp in October 2029. It hinges on durable returns, credit costs and capital after Hang Seng.
Where could HSBC's shares be by October 2029?
The probability-weighted forecast is 1168.75 GBp in October 2027, 1200.96 GBp in October 2028 and 1228.74 GBp in October 2029.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 984.26 (-25 %) | 848.03 (-32 %) | 746.70 (-37 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 1207.32 (-8 %) | 1267.05 (+2 %) | 1285.83 (+8 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 1349.06 (+3 %) | 1565.14 (+25 %) | 1809.07 (+49 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 1168.75 (-11 %) | 1200.96 (-4 %) | 1228.74 (+3 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for HSBC?
The bear case requires lower rates, persistent Hong Kong property stress and a costly Hang Seng integration to weaken earnings and capital.
The bull case requires wealth inflows to become recurring fees, savings to arrive without disruption and Hang Seng synergies to exceed their costs. Credit losses fall toward 30 basis points, capital rebuilds and buybacks strengthen, supporting P/B expansion.
How much cash does HSBC really make?
Industrial-company measures such as net debt to EBITDA and free-cash-flow yield do not fit HSBC because deposits, lending and interest are the operating business itself. Investors should instead test net interest margin, credit losses, RoTE and CET1.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 1.20 | 1.24 | 1.14 | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| Dividend per share | 0.75 | 0.87 | 0.61 | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| Buybacks per share | 0.52 | 0.61 | 0.30 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| Net share dilution | -5.1% | -5.7% | -1.9% | -1.6% | 0.3% |
What does an investor pay for HSBC today?
A share is a small claim on the profit left after HSBC pays depositors, employees, lenders, taxes and credit losses. Its trailing P/E is 13.0x, meaning investors pay £13 for each £1 of recent earnings. The forward P/E is 9.6x, which implies that forecast earnings are higher, although some improvement may simply reflect old charges disappearing.
| Today (Oct 8, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 1,380.6 |
| P/E, last 12 months | 13.0x |
| P/E, next 12 months | 9.6x |
| Price to tangible book | 1.9x |
| Dividend yield | 4.1% |