NatWest stock forecast
NatWest's probability-weighted price reaches 722.22 GBp in October 2029, implying 29% returns with dividends. It hinges on stable deposits and hedge income through 2027–2029.
Where could NatWest's shares be by 2029?
The forecast's central message is moderate compounding with a wide range of outcomes. The probability-weighted price is 653.55 GBp in October 2027, rising to 684.92 GBp in October 2028. It reaches 722.22 GBp in October 2029, equivalent to returns of 6%, 17% and 29% with dividends.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 542.57 (-12 %) | 478.69 (-18 %) | 445.45 (-18 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 667.55 (+8 %) | 710.14 (+21 %) | 746.80 (+34 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 753.77 (+22 %) | 873.37 (+48 %) | 1000.61 (+75 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 653.55 (+6 %) | 684.92 (+17 %) | 722.22 (+29 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for NatWest?
The bear case requires a connected deterioration in earnings, capital and valuation. Deposit competition and slower hedge reinvestment squeeze spreads first. Weaker borrowers then increase losses, while Basel 3.1 and Evelyn constrain buybacks. The path falls from 542.57 GBp in 2027 to 445.45 GBp in 2029. Its 25% probability reflects NatWest's changing impairment record and limited capital headroom.
The bull case needs stable deposits and hedge income through 2027–2029. By 2028, client retention, net inflows and referral conversion at Evelyn must lift fee income. By 2028–2029, realised synergies must improve costs sufficiently to fund larger buybacks and a higher multiple.
How much does NatWest really earn and return?
NII is not final profit. NatWest still pays staff, technology and property costs, and it recognises impairment losses when borrowers may not repay. In 2025, it reported £12.829 billion of NII and £671 million of impairment losses. A borrower’s repayment of loan principal returns money NatWest advanced; the interest is the income.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | 12,829 | 11,275 | 11,049 | 9,842 | 7,535 |
| Credit impairment charge | 671 | 359 | 578 | 337 | -1,173 |
| Profit before tax | 7,708 | 6,195 | 6,178 | 5,132 | 3,844 |
| Profit after tax | 5,834 | 4,730 | 4,744 | 3,857 | 2,848 |
| EPS, diluted | 67.40 | 52.10 | 48.90 | 36.20 | 22.90 |
| Dividend per share | 32.50 | 21.50 | 17.00 | 31.86 | 11.31 |
What does an investor pay for NatWest today?
NatWest Group’s share price is not simply cheap: it is a bet that the bank can keep earning strongly on its capital. At 653.60p on 13 October 2026, investors paid 8.7 times its last twelve months of earnings and 7.8 times expected earnings over the next twelve months.
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 653.60 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 8.7x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 7.8x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 1.3x |
| Price to tangible book (calculated) | 1.8x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 5.0% |