JPMorgan Chase stock forecast
On October 14, 2026, the weighted case is $351.06 in October 2027 and $429.58 in October 2029. It hinges on durable earnings and capital generation.
Where could JPMorgan Chase's shares be by 2029?
The forecast’s central outcome is moderate appreciation, with meaningful downside and considerable upside around it. The probability-weighted price is $351.06 in October 2027, representing an 8% total return with dividends. It rises to $388.12 in October 2028, or 21%, and $429.58 in October 2029, or 36%.
By October 2029, the bear-to-bull range is $280.32 to $589.60, versus today’s $331.43. The bear receives 25% probability, the base 55%, and the bull 20% because durable earnings and capital generation are more likely than either severe deterioration or sustained premium expansion.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 270.42 (-16 %) | 274.09 (-13 %) | 280.32 (-9 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 365.06 (+12 %) | 401.18 (+25 %) | 439.23 (+39 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 413.35 (+27 %) | 494.71 (+54 %) | 589.60 (+85 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 351.06 (+8 %) | 388.12 (+21 %) | 429.58 (+36 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull outcomes, so it is not a guaranteed share price.
What has to go right for JPMorgan Chase, and what could go wrong?
Deposit pricing, card balances, provisions and expenses decide whether the 2027 income case becomes lasting earnings. The January 14, 2027 earnings call should sharpen expense guidance. The November 2026 interchange settlement hearing and anticipated Investor Day in the first quarter of 2027 are further checkpoints. Higher charge-offs or faster expense growth weaken the case; stable credit and productive investment spending strengthen it.
How much cash does JPMorgan Chase really make and give back?
Profit is not automatically distributable cash. JPMorgan recognized about $3.6 billion of noncash share-based compensation in 2025, and awards settled with shares can offset repurchases. Capital, liquidity and the share count therefore need to be read together.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 20.02 | 19.75 | 16.23 | 12.09 | 15.36 |
| − Dividends, per share | 5.77 | 4.79 | 4.10 | 4.00 | 3.79 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 11.36 | 6.54 | 3.34 | 1.06 | 6.08 |
| = Kept, per share | 2.89 | 8.42 | 8.79 | 7.02 | 5.50 |
What this means. Share buybacks per share is not cash paid directly to you; it is the company’s total spending to reduce the number of shares, spread across each share.
What does an investor pay for JPMorgan Chase today?
At $331.43 on October 14, 2026, JPMorgan’s market value was $880,146 million. The trailing P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, tells how much investors pay for each dollar of recent earnings. JPMorgan’s trailing P/E was 13.9x, while its forward P/E was 13.3x. Those multiples imply roughly $23.84 and $24.92 of earnings per share. The modest difference says investors expect some improvement, but not an explosive leap.
| Today (Oct 14, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 331.43 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 13.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 13.3x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 2.5x |
| Price to tangible book (calculated) | 2.9x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.0% |
What this means. The next-12-month price-to-earnings number uses analysts’ guesses about future profit, so it is not based on profit the company has already earned.