Lloyds stock forecast
Lloyds's probability-weighted price is 113,254.26 GBp in October 2029, with 30% bear, 50% base and 20% bull. It hinges on redress staying within provision, hedge reinvestment sustaining income, and fee growth and AI savings becoming recurring.
Where could Lloyds's shares be by October 2029?
The probability-weighted price is 92,512.96 GBp in October 2027, 101,622.19 GBp in October 2028 and 113,254.26 GBp in October 2029. Including dividends, those outcomes represent returns of 90,960%, 99,929% and 111,382% from today’s 101.60. The October 2029 range runs from 48,854.12 GBp in the bear case to 176,109.29 GBp in the bull case. The probabilities are 30% bear, 50% base and 20% bull.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 59703.87 (+58667 %) | 52380.19 (+51461 %) | 48854.12 (+47993 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 99939.58 (+98270 %) | 112623.44 (+110758 %) | 126752.34 (+124668 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 123160.03 (+121125 %) | 147982.10 (+145560 %) | 176109.29 (+173249 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 92512.96 (+90960 %) | 101622.19 (+99929 %) | 113254.26 (+111382 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Lloyds?
Book value is the first driver. The base case rises from £44,661m in October 2027 to £47,761m and then £51,161m. It assumes retained earnings exceed dividends and buybacks, with earnings of £7.4bn and £7.8bn in the following periods. The starting point is credible because the next-12-month EPS estimate implies roughly £7.2bn of earnings at about 59bn shares. The bear case gives £40,121m, £40,221m and £40,521m because extra redress, credit losses and distributions absorb most earnings. The bull case gives £45,561m, £48,861m and £52,461m because fee income, hedge income and efficiency gains support stronger profits. The range reflects Lloyds’ uneven equity history and the £1.95bn motor-finance provision.
The bull case requires redress to remain within provision, hedge reinvestment to sustain income, and AI savings, cross-selling and fee growth to become recurring. Larger buybacks and a 1.80x book multiple then lift the price from 123,160.03 GBp to 176,109.29 GBp. Its 20% probability reflects the number of conditions that must align; a 17.1% half-year RoTE is encouraging but does not prove full-cycle delivery.
How much cash does Lloyds really make?
A deposit brings cash in but also creates an obligation; a loan uses cash but creates an earning asset. That is why bank cash flow cannot be read like a manufacturer’s. A future Basel change could reduce risk-weighted assets without creating operating profit.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | 13,230 | 12,277 | 13,298 | 12,922 | 9,366 |
| Other income (calculated) | 6,192 | 5,726 | 5,331 | 2,619 | 6,958 |
| Revenue | 19,422 | 18,003 | 18,629 | 15,541 | 16,324 |
| Profit after tax | 4,757 | 4,477 | 5,518 | 3,923 | 5,885 |
| Dividend per share | 3.65 | 3.17 | 2.76 | 2.40 | 2.00 |
What does an investor pay for Lloyds today?
| Today (Oct 12, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 101.60 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 12.7x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 8.3x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 1.4x |
| Price to tangible book (calculated) | 1.8x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.6% |