Weyerhaeuser stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: On October 30, 2026, Weyerhaeuser's probability-weighted forecast is $7.99 in October 2027 and $21.29 in October 2029. It hinges on cash generation through 2029.
Where could Weyerhaeuser's shares be by 2029?
The stock is $20.195 on October 30, 2026. Weighted forecast value is $7.99 in October 2027, a 56% loss. It is $21.29 in October 2029, a 17% gain. The returns include dividends. The bear case has a 30% probability. The base case has 50%. The bull case has 20%.
The probability-weighted forecast is $7.99 in October 2027, a 56% loss including dividends. In October 2028, it is $14.05, a 22% loss. By October 2029, it reaches $21.29, a 17% gain.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 0.00 (-96 %) | 0.00 (-93 %) | 1.63 (-82 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 9.20 (-50 %) | 15.74 (-14 %) | 24.10 (+32 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 16.94 (-12 %) | 30.90 (+62 %) | 43.75 (+130 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 7.99 (-56 %) | 14.05 (-22 %) | 21.29 (+17 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Weyerhaeuser?
The base margins move from 14% to 17% and then 20%, below the 20.3% five-year average at first. That reflects recent weak results, including approximately $821 million of trailing operating income, but allows housing, lumber and OSB prices to improve. Revenue begins near the approximately $7.2 billion 2026 consensus and Monticello adds planned capacity from mid-2027. The bear case keeps margins at 9%, 8% and 10%; the bull case reaches 17%, 21% and 23%.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal operating profit | 1,050 (639 / 1,309) | 1,326 (560 / 1,743) | 1,620 (720 / 2,001) |
| Shares (millions) | 715 (719 / 710) | 710 (718 / 700) | 705 (716 / 690) |
| Dividends per share | 0.84 (0.84 / 0.84) | 0.84 (0.60 / 0.92) | 0.84 (0.48 / 1.00) |
| Enterprise value to normal operating profit | 11.00 (8.00 / 13.00) | 12.00 (8.00 / 15.00) | 13.00 (9.00 / 17.00) |
| Net debt | 4,970 (5,363 / 4,987) | 4,731 (5,418 / 4,518) | 4,073 (5,312 / 3,842) |
How much cash does Weyerhaeuser really make?
Weyerhaeuser spent $474 million on capital in 2025, leaving $88 million of free cash flow. Deducting $43 million of stock-based compensation leaves $45 million of “real” free cash flow. The deduction treats stock pay as an economic cost because it can dilute owners or require repurchases, even though it is not a second cash payment in the year.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 562 | 1,008 | 1,433 | 2,832 | 3,159 |
| − Capital spending | 474 | 416 | 447 | 468 | 441 |
| = Free cash flow | 88 | 592 | 986 | 2,364 | 2,718 |
| − Stock pay | 43 | 43 | 36 | 33 | 30 |
| = Real free cash flow | 45 | 549 | 950 | 2,331 | 2,688 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 0.7% | 7.7% | 12.4% | 22.9% | 26.4% |
What this means. The company's own cash number is 397 million dollars versus our 45 million because it adds back 309 million dollars of cash spending and does not count 43 million dollars of shares given to employees as pay.
What does an investor pay for Weyerhaeuser today?
A P/E compares the share price with earnings per share. Today’s trailing P/E is 32.1, while the next-12-month figure is 76.1. Both can look high when temporary profits fall: if a $20 share earns $1, its P/E is 20, but if earnings fall to 40 cents, the multiple becomes 50 without any change in the share price. Lumber prices and housing demand move through cycles, so normal earnings matter more than one weak year.