Weyerhaeuser earnings
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Weyerhaeuser's next results are expected January 28, 2027. Weyerhaeuser's key watch is whether Monticello and its land and wood-products businesses turn projects and volume into durable cash.
What has Weyerhaeuser guided for 2026?
Management guides to 34 million tons of 2026 fee harvest and $450 million of Strategic Land Solutions Adjusted EBITDA. It guides to $375 million of 2026 capital expenditures and $250 million for Monticello. The scorecard is 4/5. Land forecasts beat initial point estimates in all 7 checked quarters. Timberlands beat them in 2 of 4 quarters.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEE HARVEST VOLUMES (million tons) | 2026 | 34 | 34 | Oct 30, 2026 |
| STRATEGIC LAND SOLUTIONS ADJUSTED EBITDA | 2026 | 450 | 450 | Oct 30, 2026 |
| CAPITAL EXPENDITURES | 2026 | 375 | 375 | Oct 30, 2026 |
| Monticello engineered wood products facility investment | 2026 | 250 | 250 | Oct 30, 2026 |
| Strategic Land Solutions earnings before special items, change from third quarter | Q4 2026 | -35 | -35 | Oct 29, 2026 |
| Strategic Land Solutions Adjusted EBITDA, change from third quarter | Q4 2026 | -45 | -45 | Oct 29, 2026 |
Did Weyerhaeuser keep its past promises?
| What management forecast | Checked | Above | Within | Below |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate, Energy & Natural Resources / Strategic Land Solutions — Adjusted EBITDA | 7 quarters | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Real Estate, Energy & Natural Resources / Strategic Land Solutions — earnings before special items | 7 quarters | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Timberlands — Adjusted EBITDA | 4 quarters | 2 | 1 | 1 |
How have Weyerhaeuser revenue and profit trended recently?
Revenue fell from $10.2 billion in 2021 to $6.9 billion in 2025. The decline slowed to 3.1% in 2025 after its sharpest annual drop in 2023. Quarterly sales recovered from $1.5 billion at the end of 2025 to $1.9 billion in the third quarter of 2026, but one recovery does not establish a trend.
The sequential picture was worse. Gross margin fell from 16.7% in the second quarter to 13.8% in the third. Wood Products Adjusted EBITDA was $91 million, down from $129 million in the second quarter, as oriented strand board realizations fell 2% and maintenance and resin costs increased.
| Sep 2026 | Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,862 | 1,867 | 1,727 | 1,541 | 1,717 | 1,884 | 1,763 | 1,708 |
| Gross margin | 13.8% | 16.7% | 18.4% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 17.3% | 19.0% | 17.8% |
| Operating margin | 5.4% | 11.9% | 14.3% | 16.3% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.3% |
| EPS, diluted | 0.08 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Free cash flow | 56 | 260 | -60 | -263 | 85 | 289 | -23 | 69 |
What should Weyerhaeuser watch in its next release?
Timberlands’ fourth-quarter results are expected to resemble the third quarter. Wood Products is expected to decline before changes in lumber and OSB prices; a further price fall would make the outcome worse. The record of management’s forecasts is broadly favorable, with land forecasts usually above the initial point estimate and Timberlands more mixed. This table shows the checked forecasts by business and result.
The Arkansas land sale will test whether higher-and-better-use land earns more than keeping it in timber. Compare Adjusted FAD with actual cash after all capex, and compare ordinary maintenance spending with mill performance. For Climate Solutions, distinguish credits issued from credits sold and contracted: issuance creates a verified product, a sale creates cash, and a contract signals future demand. Also watch liabilities that outlast the projects; Weyerhaeuser recorded an $18 million noncash environmental charge in 2025 and had approximately $93 million accrued for remediation using June 30, 2026 balances.