Walmart stock forecast
Walmart's weighted price is $114.26 in October 2029. Walmart's outcome hinges on earnings growth and Walmart sustaining a premium valuation.
Where could Walmart's shares be in each forecast year?
The weighted price is $112.05 in October 2027, a 2% return with dividends. The October 2028 weighted price is $112.96, a 4% return. The October 2029 figure is $114.26, a 6% return. The 2029 range is $77.23 to $171.09. Today’s price is $110.56.
The base case receives a 60% probability. The bear case receives 25%, and the bull case 15%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 93.58 (-14 %) | 84.22 (-22 %) | 77.23 (-27 %) |
| Base | 60 % | 114.45 (+4 %) | 115.31 (+6 %) | 115.48 (+7 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 133.22 (+21 %) | 151.44 (+39 %) | 171.09 (+58 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 112.05 (+2 %) | 112.96 (+4 %) | 114.26 (+6 %) |
What has to go right for Walmart, and what could go wrong?
The bear case starts at $24,700m and reaches $25,421m. It assumes about 3% annual revenue growth from the $736bn base, with margins falling from 3.25% to 3.15%. The bull case spans $27,584m to $33,174m, supported by stronger transactions, digital demand, advertising, membership and fulfillment productivity. The base is supported by guidance for 4–5% sales growth and faster operating-income growth, plus seven earnings beats in eight reports. The forecast removes tariff refunds and other identified one-time items, so the bull requires recurring improvement.
How much cash does Walmart really make?
Free cash flow yield compares annual cash generation with market value, but the answer changes depending on whether the calculation deducts stock pay or payments to outside subsidiary owners. The cash table therefore distinguishes headline free cash flow from cash left after these claims.
| Year to Jan 2026 | Year to Jan 2025 | Year to Jan 2024 | Year to Jan 2023 | Year to Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 41,565 | 36,443 | 35,726 | 28,841 | 24,181 |
| Capital spending | 26,642 | 23,783 | 20,606 | 16,857 | 13,106 |
| Free cash flow (calculated) | 14,923 | 12,660 | 15,120 | 11,984 | 11,075 |
| Stock-based pay | 3,603 | 2,769 | 2,093 | 1,578 | 1,163 |
| Real free cash flow (after stock pay) (calculated) | 11,320 | 9,891 | 13,027 | 10,406 | 9,912 |
| Real free cash flow per share (calculated) | 1.41 | 1.22 | 1.61 | 1.27 | 1.18 |
What does an investor pay today for Walmart?
P/E, or price-to-earnings, says how much investors pay for one dollar of annual profit. Trailing P/E uses the past twelve months; forward P/E uses the next twelve months as estimated. A lower forward multiple suggests expected growth, but adjusted and reported earnings may not count costs in the same way.
| Today (Oct 9, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 110.56 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 39.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 34.3x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.5% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.9% |