Amazon stock forecast
The weighted outcome is $424.16 in October 2029. It hinges on AWS capacity becoming profitable usage and supporting earnings and cash flow.
Where could Amazon's shares be by 2029?
The forecast’s weighted outcome is $338.56 in October 2027, $378.25 in October 2028 and $424.16 in October 2029.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 273.24 (+8 %) | 236.60 (-7 %) | 198.20 (-22 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 338.38 (+33 %) | 382.42 (+51 %) | 429.79 (+69 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 420.73 (+66 %) | 543.84 (+114 %) | 691.10 (+172 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 338.56 (+33 %) | 378.25 (+49 %) | 424.16 (+67 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Amazon?
Revenue growth is the central operating assumption. The base case uses 13.5% in FY2026, supported by first-half revenue and guidance for the September quarter. It then uses 13.0%, 12.0% and 11.0%, as AWS capacity begins billing after the stated six-to-24-month lag. The bear path falls to 12.5%, 9.0%, 7.0% and 6.0% if AI demand leaves capacity underused. The bull path uses 14.5%, 16.5%, 15.5% and 14.0%, supported by AWS growth of 36.7% in June 2026 and constrained capacity.
The bear case assumes Amazon builds faster than customers consume. AWS growth slows, infrastructure remains underused, retail profitability faces delivery and seller-fee pressure, and cash generation weakens. Investors then reduce the multiple from 18x to 12x. The path produces $273.24 in October 2027 and $198.20 in October 2029, with 25% probability. The risk is credible because AWS billing can lag investment by six to 24 months, but current growth and constrained capacity argue against making it central.
| FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 13.5 % (12.5 % / 14.5 %) | 13.0 % (9.0 % / 16.5 %) | 12.0 % (7.0 % / 15.5 %) | 11.0 % (6.0 % / 14.0 %) |
| Measure (EBITDA / cash flow) | 169,251 (161,308 / 174,026) | 195,852 (174,067 / 213,260) | 224,503 (183,430 / 256,256) | 253,771 (194,436 / 302,206) |
| Net debt | 24,123 (30,841 / 20,061) | 78,354 (64,147 / 99,545) | 114,237 (64,961 / 174,161) | 120,701 (40,876 / 211,152) |
| Buybacks | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.00) | 0.00 (0.00 / 500) | 500 (0.00 / 1,500) | 1,000 (0.00 / 2,500) |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.00) | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.00) | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.00) | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.00) |
How much cash does Amazon really make?
Free cash flow, or FCF, subtracts property and equipment purchases from operating cash. Amazon spent $131,819 million on those purchases in 2025, leaving much less cash after investment. Its reported FCF was $11,194 million because it included proceeds from equipment sales and incentives.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 139,514 | 115,877 | 84,946 | 46,752 | 46,327 |
| Capital spending | 131,819 | 82,999 | 52,729 | 63,645 | 61,053 |
| Free cash flow | 7,695 | 32,878 | 32,217 | -16,893 | -14,726 |
| Stock-based pay | 19,467 | 22,011 | 24,023 | 19,621 | 12,757 |
| Real free cash flow (after stock pay) | -11,772 | 10,867 | 8,194 | -36,514 | -27,483 |
| Real free cash flow per share | -1.09 | 1.01 | 0.78 | -3.58 | -2.67 |
What do investors pay for Amazon today?
Cash tells a different story because Amazon is building capacity. During the twelve months ended June 30, 2026, operating cash flow was $161.4 billion, but equipment purchases drove free cash flow to negative $7.6 billion. Free cash flow is the cash left after buying long-lived assets such as servers, data centers and delivery facilities. Accounting spreads those costs through depreciation, while cash flow records the purchase immediately.