Target stock forecast
Target's weighted forecast is $151.19 in October 2029, after $133.73 in October 2027. It hinges on traffic, comparable sales, margins without tariff refunds and cash generation improving.
Where could Target's shares be in October 2029?
The weighted price is $133.73 in October 2027. That is a 10% loss including dividends. The final weighted price is $151.19 in October 2029. That is a 7% gain including dividends. The bear case has 28% probability, and the base case has 55%. The bull case has 17%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 85.21 (-42 %) | 71.24 (-48 %) | 69.09 (-46 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 144.49 (-3 %) | 151.19 (+4 %) | 158.10 (+12 %) |
| Bull | 17 % | 178.84 (+19 %) | 218.64 (+48 %) | 264.05 (+81 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 133.73 (-10 %) | 140.27 (-3 %) | 151.19 (+7 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Target?
The base case assumes revenue of $111,000 million in October 2027, followed by 2% annual growth. Margins rise from 3.7% to 3.8% and then 3.9%, producing earnings of $4,107 million, $4,302.36 million, and $4,503.915 million. Q2 traffic rose 3.6%, comparable sales rose 3.8%, and all six core categories grew, supporting a measured recovery.
The bear case holds revenue near $108,000 million before falling to $106,000 million, with margins between 2.8% and 3.0%. It reflects weaker discretionary demand, markdowns, and a fading traffic rebound. The bull case grows revenue from $112,000 million to $121,139.2 million and margins from 4.0% to 4.4%, requiring store resets, better assortment, and productive digital investment.
How much cash does Target really make?
Free cash flow subtracts capital spending from operating cash. A more conservative analytical measure also subtracts stock-based compensation, which is not a current-period cash payment but compensates employees with equity and can dilute owners.
| Jan 2026 | Feb 2025 | Feb 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 6,562 | 7,367 | 8,621 | 4,018 | 8,625 |
| − Capital spending | 3,727 | 2,891 | 4,806 | 5,528 | 3,544 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,835 | 4,476 | 3,815 | -1,510 | 5,081 |
| − Stock pay | 281 | 304 | 251 | 220 | 228 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,554 | 4,172 | 3,564 | -1,730 | 4,853 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | -1.6% | 4.6% |
What this means. Stock pay is subtracted even though it uses no cash because giving employees shares reduces what existing shareholders own.
What does an investor pay for Target today?
The P/E ratio translates the price into a claim on earnings. It divides the share price by earnings per share, so a 16.0x P/E means investors pay sixteen dollars for each dollar of annual earnings. If Target earns $10 per share and the stock trades at $160, the P/E is 16.0x. But the denominator can be temporarily inflated when an unusual benefit, such as the tariff refund recognized in Q2 2026, raises reported profit.
| Today (Oct 17, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 154.24 |
| Market value (calculated) | 70,070.73 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 16.0x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.0% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.6% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.0% |
What this means. “Real free cash flow” is not defined here, so a beginner cannot tell how it differs from regular free cash flow.