Costco stock forecast
Costco's probability-weighted price is $875.57 in October 2029, including dividends. It hinges on FY2027 and FY2028 renewal and adjusted comparable-sales growth.
Where could Costco's shares be by October 2029?
For FY2027, management plans $7,500 million of capital spending and up to 33 warehouse openings, including five relocations. The weighted price is $865.55 in October 2027, a return of -8%. It is $875.57 in October 2029, a return of -5%; dividends are included. Bear, base and bull probabilities are 25%, 55% and 20%.
The probability-weighted price is $865.55 in October 2027, an 8% loss including dividends. It is $869.87 in October 2028, a 7% loss. By October 2029, it reaches $875.57, a 5% loss.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 657.03 (-30 %) | 599.59 (-36 %) | 550.80 (-40 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 895.34 (-5 %) | 891.12 (-5 %) | 882.29 (-5 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 1044.26 (+11 %) | 1149.29 (+23 %) | 1263.05 (+36 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 865.55 (-8 %) | 869.87 (-7 %) | 875.57 (-5 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Costco?
The decision turns on FY2027 and FY2028 renewal rates and fuel- and currency-adjusted comparable sales, meaning sales growth at locations open long enough to measure against the same period last year. Productive new and infill warehouses, sustained traffic and international growth support the bull case. Weaker renewal, margin pressure or costly digital fulfillment support the bear case. The share-repurchase authorization expires in January 2027. Trial in Gray v. Costco is scheduled for March 1, 2027. Debt repayments fall due in May and June 2027, and the credit facility matures in August 2027.
Base earnings rise from $10,178 million in October 2027 to $11,857 million in October 2029. The middle year is $10,976 million. The path begins with 8.3% revenue growth, matching the analyst estimate, then slows to 7.2% and 7.0%. Margins rise from 3.10% to 3.15%, close to Costco’s recent level. The bear case reaches only $9,430 million by the last date because revenue growth fades and margins fall. The bull case reaches $13,273 million because traffic, international growth, openings, and operating leverage are stronger. Five consecutive years of rising net income and 7% adjusted comparable-sales growth support the base case, while worldwide renewal below 90% and thin margins justify the downside.
How much cash does Costco really make?
Capital spending absorbs a large share of the cash generated. Costco invests in warehouses, remodels, systems and distribution facilities, so free cash flow is what remains after that physical expansion bill. Stock-based compensation creates another economic cost: it may not require an immediate cash payment, but it gives employees ownership and can dilute shareholders.
| Aug 2026 | Aug 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Aug 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 15,817 | 13,335 | 11,339 | 11,068 | 7,392 |
| − Capital spending | 6,435 | 5,498 | 4,710 | 4,323 | 3,891 |
| = Free cash flow | 9,382 | 7,837 | 6,629 | 6,745 | 3,501 |
| − Stock pay | 924 | 860 | 818 | 774 | 724 |
| = Real free cash flow | 8,458 | 6,977 | 5,811 | 5,971 | 2,777 |
What does an investor pay for Costco today?
| Today (Oct 11, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 946.92 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 45.6x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 37.8x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.2% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.0% |