Kroger stock forecast
Kroger's weighted forecast reaches $75.14 in October 2027 and $80.85 in October 2029. It hinges on sales, operating profit and cash improving together.
Where could Kroger's shares be by 2029?
The forecast's central case is a moderate gain, not a dramatic rerating. The probability-weighted price is $75.14 in the first forecast year. It rises to $77.73 in the second. By the final year, it reaches $80.85. That is a 37% dividend-inclusive return from today's $62.75.
The range is wide because Kroger can either protect recurring earnings or lose margin and investor confidence. By the final year, the bear case gives $40.82, while the bull case gives $129.96. The bear probability is 28%, against 52% for the base. The bull receives 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 55.12 (-10 %) | 47.71 (-19 %) | 40.82 (-27 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 77.84 (+27 %) | 80.82 (+34 %) | 83.51 (+42 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 96.14 (+56 %) | 111.73 (+84 %) | 129.96 (+116 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 75.14 (+22 %) | 77.73 (+29 %) | 80.85 (+37 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Kroger?
Bear earnings fall from $2,664 million to $2,384 million. Bull earnings rise from $3,473 million to $4,000 million. Bear revenue reaches $149,000 million and margins fall to 1.60%. Bull revenue reaches $160,000 million and margins reach 2.50%. These choices reflect fewer items per basket and reduced identical-sales guidance. That guidance is 0.2%–0.8%. They also reflect adjusted EPS guidance of $5.10–$5.30 and potential gains from availability, sourcing, eCommerce, retail media, and Giant Eagle.
How much cash does Kroger really make?
Stock compensation adds another economic cost. It does not use cash immediately, but it gives employees a claim on the company. Subtracting $157 million of stock pay produces real free cash flow of $3,299 million. Kroger’s own count is higher because it excludes selected payments, but excluded checks remain checks.
| Jan 2026 | Feb 2025 | Feb 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 7,311 | 5,794 | 6,788 | 4,498 | 6,190 |
| − Capital spending | 3,855 | 4,017 | 3,904 | 3,078 | 2,614 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,456 | 1,777 | 2,884 | 1,420 | 3,576 |
| − Stock pay | 157 | 175 | 172 | 190 | 203 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,299 | 1,602 | 2,712 | 1,230 | 3,373 |
What this means. The company's free cash flow is higher because it leaves out certain cash costs that our count includes, while we also subtract shares given to employees as pay.
What does an investor pay for Kroger today?
The trailing P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, is 34.1x. It looks high because fiscal 2025 reported EPS was $1.54, while adjusted EPS was $4.85. Kroger removed specified unusual items from adjusted earnings, including $2.5 billion of fulfillment-network impairment and related charges. That adjustment helps show potential recurring profit, but it does not restore money spent on facilities that failed to meet expectations. Kroger also made a roughly $350 million cash termination payment to Ocado.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 62.75 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 34.1x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 11.4x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 9.3% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 8.9% |