TJX stock forecast
TJX's weighted path reaches $156.84 in October 2029, after outcomes ranging from $115.98 to $191.65. It hinges on whether TJX can grow stores and baskets without giving back its value advantage.
Where could TJX's shares go in the forecast?
The 2029 outcomes range from $115.98 to $191.65. The bear case has a 25% probability, the base case 55%, and the bull case 20%, because moderate continued growth is better supported than either sustained execution failure or a full operating acceleration.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 126.01 (-9 %) | 121.24 (-11 %) | 115.98 (-14 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 140.05 (+1 %) | 152.39 (+11 %) | 162.75 (+20 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 146.63 (+5 %) | 167.77 (+22 %) | 191.65 (+40 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 137.85 (-1 %) | 147.68 (+7 %) | 156.84 (+16 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a separate forecast.
What has to go right for TJX's base case, and what could go wrong?
The bear case gives $5,702 million initially and only $5,899 million by the final date. It assumes weak Marmaxx transactions, less favorable buying, and margin erosion. The bull case reaches $7,247 million because Marmaxx transactions recover, HomeGoods stays strong, and new stores add productive sales. Management’s 3%–4% comp outlook and raised adjusted EPS guidance support the base, while FY26’s outperformance supports confidence in execution.
How much cash does TJX really make?
Free cash flow means cash from operations after capital spending. Operating cash reached $6,874 million in FY26. Capital spending was $1,957 million, leaving $4,917 million of analytical free cash flow. That was about 90% of net income, which supports the quality of the reported profit.
Stock compensation adds back $214 million because no cash leaves immediately when shares are issued. But employees still receive value, and existing owners are diluted. Deducting it gives analytical “real free cash flow” of $4,703 million.
| Jan 2026 | Feb 2025 | Feb 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 6,874 | 6,116 | 6,057 | 4,084 | 3,057 |
| − Capital spending | 1,957 | 1,918 | 1,722 | 1,457 | 1,045 |
| = Free cash flow | 4,917 | 4,198 | 4,335 | 2,627 | 2,012 |
| − Stock pay | 214 | 183 | 160 | 122 | 189 |
| = Real free cash flow | 4,703 | 4,015 | 4,175 | 2,505 | 1,823 |
What this means. Stock pay is subtracted even though no cash left the company because giving employees shares reduces the part of the company owned by existing shareholders.
What does an investor pay for TJX today?
Revenue and operating margin rose over five years, while TJX’s real free cash flow as a share of sales tests whether those profits convert to cash. Net cash stayed positive, but the latest quarter’s reported profit included a tariff-refund benefit. At $141.14, TJX trades at 26.09x trailing earnings and 26.78x next-twelve-month earnings; free cash flow yield is 3.2%, real free cash flow yield is 3.0%, dividend yield is 1.4%, and buyback yield is 1.6%.
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 141.14 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 26.09x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 26.78x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.2% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.0% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 1.4% |
What this means. The next 12 months price-to-earnings number uses analysts' expected profit, so it is an estimate rather than a fact about the company's earnings.