Ross Stores stock forecast
The weighted price for Ross Stores is $203.23 in October 2029. It hinges on transactions staying strong, inventory growth avoiding markdown pressure, and margins remaining healthy.
Where could Ross Stores' shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is $203.22 in October 2027. That is a 13% loss including dividends. The weighted price is $203.23 in October 2029. That is a 12% loss including dividends. The bear case carries 30% probability. The base case carries 55%, and the bull case 15%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30% | 157.96 (-33%) | 140.49 (-39%) | 129.76 (-43%) |
| Base | 55% | 215.52 (-8%) | 216.81 (-7%) | 216.37 (-6%) |
| Bull | 15% | 248.65 (+6%) | 279.26 (+20%) | 302.00 (+30%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 203.22 (-13%) | 203.28 (-13%) | 203.23 (-12%) |
What has to go right for Ross Stores, and what could go wrong?
The base reflects a 10% comparable-sales increase led mainly by traffic, management’s planned 115 openings, and its 8%–10% long-term earnings framework. The bear reflects traffic fading and inventory rising faster than sales, which raises markdown risk. The bull assumes repeat visits persist and new stores improve productivity, but Ross has not supplied complete store-cohort returns.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 2,509 (2,263 / 2,600) | 2,693 (2,311 / 2,876) | 2,890 (2,367 / 3,172) |
| Shares (millions) | 314 (315 / 314) | 310 (313 / 309) | 307 (310 / 305) |
| Dividends per share | 1.92 (1.78 / 2.00) | 2.11 (1.78 / 2.36) | 2.31 (1.78 / 2.72) |
| Price to earnings | 27.00 (22.00 / 30.00) | 25.00 (19.00 / 30.00) | 23.00 (17.00 / 29.00) |
How much cash does Ross Stores really make?
Stock compensation creates a different adjustment. It reduces profit but initially uses no cash because employees receive shares. Subtracting stock pay of 175,354 from free cash flow produces analytical “real free cash flow” of 2,032,254. That is not Ross’s own earnings measure, but it recognizes dilution as an economic cost.
| Jan 2026 | Feb 2025 | Feb 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,026,883 | 2,356,988 | 2,514,490 | 1,689,373 | 1,738,849 |
| − Capital spending | 819,275 | 720,104 | 762,812 | 654,070 | 557,840 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,207,608 | 1,636,884 | 1,751,678 | 1,035,303 | 1,181,009 |
| − Stock pay | 175,354 | 156,298 | 145,490 | 121,936 | 134,217 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,032,254 | 1,480,586 | 1,606,188 | 913,367 | 1,046,792 |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because shares given to employees use no cash today, but they give employees part of the company.
What does an investor pay today for Ross Stores?
At $236.89 on October 16, 2026, Ross traded at 28.7 times its last twelve months’ earnings and 28.0 times expected earnings over the next twelve months. The P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, tells you how much investors pay for each dollar of annual profit. A 28.0-times P/E implies expected earnings of about $8.46 per share. Ross must first earn that amount, and the market may later assign those earnings a higher or lower multiple.