TD stock forecast
TD's weighted forecast reaches CAD 153.88 by October 2029. It hinges on credit costs easing, U.S. AML remediation advancing and earnings improving.
Where could TD's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price rises to CAD 144.77 in October 2028. The dividend-inclusive loss then narrows to 5%. By October 2029, the weighted price reaches CAD 153.88, producing a 4% total return.
The final-date range is wide, from CAD 87.22 in the bear case to CAD 219.78 in the bull case. Today’s price is CAD 162.23. The probabilities behind the weighting reflect the specialists’ combined view of TD’s regulatory, credit, operating and capital-return risks.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 99.48 (-36 %) | 91.61 (-38 %) | 87.22 (-38 %) |
| Base | 53 % | 143.27 (-9 %) | 152.51 (-0 %) | 162.98 (+9 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 172.07 (+9 %) | 196.03 (+27 %) | 219.78 (+45 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 137.21 (-13 %) | 144.77 (-5 %) | 153.88 (+4 %) |
What has to go right for TD, and what could go wrong?
The bear case requires TD’s recovery to stall. A delayed SAR lookback keeps the U.S. asset cap binding, credit losses rise and deposit competition compresses NIM. Remediation absorbs capital, so buybacks fall while dividends continue at a slower pace. The price reaches CAD 99.48 in October 2027 and CAD 87.22 by October 2029. Its probability is 27%, reflecting concentrated regulatory risk, elevated credit costs and weak fee growth.
The base case assumes milestones advance, Canadian banking and fee businesses grow, and credit costs ease gradually. Repurchases remain substantial, but the valuation multiple stays stable. The price reaches CAD 143.27 first and CAD 162.98 last. Its 53% probability reflects improving NIM, lower provisions and a 14.3% CET1 ratio, balanced against the asset cap and remediation burden.
How much cash does TD really make and return?
Dividends rose from C$3.16 per share in 2021 to C$4.20 in 2025. Diluted weighted-average shares fell 1.8% in 2025, so adjusted EPS could grow faster than adjusted income. Book value per share reached C$68.78 and tangible book value per share reached C$55.72.
| Year to Oct 2025 | Year to Oct 2024 | Year to Oct 2023 | Year to Oct 2022 | Year to Oct 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted net income (company's measure) | 15,025 | 14,277 | 14,995 | 15,425 | 14,649 |
| Adjusted EPS (company's measure) | 8.37 | 7.81 | 7.91 | 8.36 | 7.91 |
| Adjusted return on equity (company's measure) | 12.9% | 13.6% | 14.2% | 15.9% | 15.9% |
| Adjusted efficiency ratio (company's measure) | 58.4% | 58.1% | 56.4% | 52.8% | 53.7% |
What does an investor pay for TD today?
| Today (Oct 8, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 162.23 |
| Market value | 264,943 |
| P/E, last 12 months | 17.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months | 16.0x |
| Price to book | 2.3x |
| Price to tangible book | 2.9x |
| Dividend yield | 2.8% |