BMO stock forecast
BMO’s probability-weighted forecast reaches C$259.63 by October 2029. It hinges on improving returns without a credit or funding setback.
Where could BMO’s shares go?
The probability-weighted forecast reaches C$259.63 by October 2029, close to the C$260.18 base case. The bear case is C$164.28 and the bull case is C$377.30. The next tests are U.S. returns, deposits, fees, expenses and credit costs. BMO plans to report fiscal 2026 results on December 2, 2026. Transportation and Vendor Finance was expected to close in fiscal Q4 2026, and Moneris by the end of fiscal Q1 2027. Those sales must release capital without weakening growth.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 177.65 (-20 %) | 168.11 (-21 %) | 164.28 (-20 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 236.20 (+5 %) | 247.24 (+14 %) | 260.18 (+23 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 271.54 (+21 %) | 319.25 (+45 %) | 377.30 (+74 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 228.63 (+2 %) | 241.86 (+11 %) | 259.63 (+22 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for BMO?
The forecast would move toward the bear case if mortgage and consumer arrears push provisions higher during FY2027–FY2029, or if deposit competition compresses margins through FY2028. A missed U.S. return milestone would also slow buybacks and compress the multiple.
The base case would gain support if adjusted ROE approaches 15% in FY2027, revenue grows faster than expenses through FY2028 and credit costs ease gradually. The bull case would become more credible if U.S. Banking reaches its 12.0% ROE target in FY2028 and dispositions release capital without reducing growth investment.
How much cash does BMO really make?
The dividend is useful only alongside capital strength. Deposits are money BMO owes customers, not spare cash: they fund loans and securities that must earn more than their funding costs, losses and operating expenses. BMO must retain enough capital to absorb shocks before distributing profit.
| Year to Oct 2025 | Year to Oct 2024 | Year to Oct 2023 | Year to Oct 2022 | Year to Oct 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 11.44 | 9.51 | 5.76 | 19.99 | 11.58 |
| Dividend per share | 6.44 | 6.12 | 5.80 | 5.44 | 4.24 |
| Buybacks per share (calculated) | 4.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stock pay per share (calculated) | 2.56 | 1.71 | 0.84 | 1.14 | 2.42 |
| Net share dilution (calculated) | -0.7% | 2.5% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
What does an investor pay for BMO today?
Its reported P/E is 18.80, above the five fiscal year-end observations from 2021 through 2025. That history ranged from 6.3 to 18.2. The comparison is imperfect because acquisition-related gains made one year’s earnings unusually high, while the Bank of the West acquisition depressed another year’s earnings. A bank can look cheap when profit is temporarily inflated and expensive when profit is temporarily impaired.
| Today (Oct 9, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 230.69 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 18.80x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 15.52x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 2.04x |
| Price to tangible book (calculated) | 2.74x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.0% |