RBC stock forecast
RBC's weighted forecast is C$300.37 in October 2029, with the bear case at 25%, the base case at 55% and the bull case at 20%. It hinges on manageable credit costs, resilient margins, HSBC Canada and City National execution, and retention of its valuation premium.
Where could RBC's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast is C$277.84 in October 2027, with +2% including dividends. It is C$300.37 in October 2029, with +16% including dividends. The bear case has 25% probability and the base case 55%. The bull case has 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | 225.75 (-17%) | 215.54 (-18%) | 204.84 (-19%) |
| Base | 55% | 286.35 (+5%) | 297.02 (+12%) | 306.90 (+18%) |
| Bull | 20% | 319.56 (+17%) | 358.68 (+34%) | 401.85 (+52%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 277.84 (+2%) | 288.98 (+9%) | 300.37 (+16%) |
What this means. The weighted October 2027 value is below today's price, so its displayed return of plus two percent may confuse you.
What has to go right or wrong for RBC?
The bear case assumes credit costs keep rising, mortgage and deposit competition compress spreads, City National misses its return target and buybacks slow. It produces C$225.75 in October 2027 and C$204.84 in October 2029, with a 25% probability. Impaired loans reached C$10,143 million and allowance coverage fell to 76.8%, making the risk concrete. The U.S. region’s 10.7% ROE remains below its 12.0% target. The probability stays below the base because RBC retains earnings and capital capacity.
The bull case requires credit improvement, disciplined pricing, durable HSBC Canada revenue, better wealth and capital-markets momentum, and City National reaching its target. It produces C$319.56 first and C$401.85 last, with a 20% probability. Q3 ROE of 17.9% exceeded the 17.0%+ objective. But the bull also requires a 3.2x multiple and C$9.0 billion of 2029 buybacks, so it depends on several favorable outcomes.
How much does RBC earn and give back?
In 2025, RBC declared C$6.04 per share in dividends and spent C$2,768 million on share buybacks. It retained C$6.09 per share.
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 14.07 | 11.25 | 10.32 | 11.06 | 11.06 |
| − Dividends declared divided by diluted average shares | 6.02 | 5.60 | 5.34 | 4.94 | 4.32 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 1.96 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 3.86 | 0.00 |
| = Kept, per share | 6.09 | 5.55 | 4.97 | 2.26 | 6.74 |
What this means. The company kept C$6.09 per share because it paid C$1.96 per share for share buybacks, which counts as money returned to shareholders even though it can make each remaining share a larger piece of the company.
What does an investor pay for RBC today?
RBC asks investors to pay a substantial premium for its ability to earn strong profits on shareholder capital. At C$280.01 on October 19, 2026, its trailing P/E is 17.6x, meaning investors pay C$17.60 for each dollar of recent annual profit. Its forward P/E is 17.1x, based on expected profit over the next twelve months.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 280.01 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 17.6x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 17.1x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 2.9x |
| Price to tangible book (calculated) | 3.6x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.5% |
What this means. The share price is from October 16, while the report is dated October 19, so the figures are not all measured on the same day.