CIBC stock forecast
The weighted scenario reaches 157.87 in October 2027, 169.87 in October 2028 and 184.48 in October 2029. It hinges on credit quality.
Where could CIBC's shares be by 2029?
The probability-weighted price reaches 157.87 in October 2027, 169.87 in October 2028 and 184.48 in October 2029. Including dividends, those outcomes represent returns of 4%, 15% and 28% from today’s 155.63. The October 2029 range runs from 124.75 in the bear case to 237.61 in the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 137.20 (-9 %) | 130.42 (-11 %) | 124.75 (-12 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 162.31 (+7 %) | 179.33 (+21 %) | 199.06 (+37 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 177.78 (+17 %) | 205.37 (+38 %) | 237.61 (+63 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 157.87 (+4 %) | 169.87 (+15 %) | 184.48 (+28 %) |
What has to go right for CIBC's forecast to work?
The bear case reaches 60,500 million, 63,800 million and 68,500 million because credit losses reduce earnings and buybacks are curtailed. The bull case reaches 61,700 million, 66,100 million and 71,200 million because credit costs normalize and operating leverage improves. Both remain profitable paths. Management’s targets of 7%–10% diluted EPS growth and at least 15% ROE support the base, but past ROE ranged from 10.3% to 16.1%, so the forecast does not assume smooth delivery.
How much cash does CIBC really make?
Fiscal 2025 operating activities generated C$13,838 million. Deposits supplied cash while lending used cash, and provisions and other non-cash items also shaped the total. That figure is not a simple cash-conversion measure.
CIBC invested C$1,109 million in property, equipment, software and other intangible assets. The filings do not cleanly separate maintenance from growth, and many controls and technology costs run through expenses. Rising book value per share and tangible book value show that equity accumulated, but future credit losses could reduce that progress. The final test is whether CIBC can fund investment, absorb realistic losses, preserve its buffers and still distribute capital safely.
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 8.57 | 7.28 | 5.17 | 6.68 | 6.96 |
| − Dividends, per share | 3.86 | 3.59 | 3.44 | 3.26 | 2.91 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 1.84 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| = Kept, per share | 2.88 | 3.24 | 1.73 | 3.27 | 4.05 |
What does an investor pay for CIBC today?
The P/E ratio compares the share price with earnings per share. Its lower forward measure implies that investors expect the earnings base to grow by about 9.5%. That expectation matters because a bank’s earnings must survive ordinary loan losses, not just look strong in one quarter.
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 155.63 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 15.0x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 13.7x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 2.4x |
| Price to tangible book (calculated) | 2.8x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.8% |