Scotiabank stock forecast
Scotiabank's weighted scenario is assessed by October 2029, across a 27% bear, 53% base and 20% bull case. Scotiabank's forecast hinges on recurring earnings growth.
Where could Scotiabank's shares be by 2029?
The probability-weighted result is built from a 27% bear case, a 53% base case and a 20% bull case. The table shows both the paths and their dividend-inclusive returns.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 89.12 (-26 %) | 84.03 (-26 %) | 78.58 (-27 %) |
| Base | 53 % | 111.33 (-8 %) | 116.64 (+0 %) | 118.86 (+6 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 122.78 (+1 %) | 140.77 (+20 %) | 160.99 (+40 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 107.62 (-11 %) | 112.66 (-3 %) | 116.41 (+4 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Scotiabank?
Scotiabank offers a small positive total return by October 2029, hinging on recurring earnings growth, controlled credit costs, and returns that justify its valuation. Management targets 14.0% ROE by FY2028 after adjusted ROE of 14.2% in Q3 2026, plus 7.0% annual compounded EPS growth and a 12.0% medium-term CET1 ratio. For FY2026, it expects strong earnings and revenue growth, wider margins, lower credit losses, and modest expense growth excluding divestitures.
How much does Scotiabank really earn and give back?
Revenue comes from net interest income and other income, including fees, investments and markets. In 2025, both streams grew, but net income rose only 0.4% while diluted earnings per share fell 3.4%. Diluted EPS measures profit available to each common share after allowing for instruments that could become shares and claims belonging to other equity holders.
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 37,741 | 33,670 | 32,214 | 31,416 | 31,252 |
| Net income | 7,789 | 7,758 | 7,338 | 9,916 | 9,624 |
| EPS, diluted | 5.67 | 5.87 | 5.72 | 8.02 | 7.70 |
| Dividend per share | 4.32 | 4.24 | 4.18 | 4.06 | 3.60 |
| Return on equity | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 14.8% | 14.7% |
What does an investor pay for Scotiabank today?
Price to book adds a test of quality. Scotiabank trades at 1.9 times book and 2.4 times tangible book, which removes goodwill and other intangible assets. That premium makes sense only if the bank can keep earning strong returns on its capital. Higher loan losses or a need for more capital would reduce the profit produced by each dollar of equity.
| Today (Oct 11, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 126.03 |
| Market value (calculated) | 153,609.14 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 16.5x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 14.7x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 1.9x |
| Price to tangible book (calculated) | 2.4x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.6% |