OXY stock forecast
OXY's probability-weighted price is $58.44 in October 2027, $59.99 in October 2028 and $62.57 in October 2029. OXY's outcome hinges on commodity prices, operating delivery and debt reduction.
Where could OXY's shares go?
The forecast sees limited weighted upside, with substantial downside if oil and gas weaken. The probability-weighted price is $58.44 in October 2027, $59.99 in October 2028 and $62.57 in October 2029, equivalent to total returns of negative 5%, negative 1% and positive 5% with dividends. By October 2029, the bear case reaches $28.78 while the bull case reaches $120.48, against today’s $62.38.
The bear case carries 30% probability. The base case carries 55%, and the bull case 15%. By October 2029, outcomes span $28.78 in the bear case to $120.48 in the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 31.04 (-49 %) | 25.33 (-57 %) | 28.78 (-51 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 63.45 (+4 %) | 66.93 (+11 %) | 65.20 (+10 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 94.87 (+54 %) | 103.89 (+70 %) | 120.48 (+99 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 58.44 (-5 %) | 59.99 (-1 %) | 62.57 (+5 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, so it can be lower than today's price even when one case shows a large gain.
What has to go right for OXY, and what could go wrong?
The forecast’s $13.4 billion EBITDA in 2027 falls to $12.8 billion and $12.5 billion thereafter. The base case uses realized oil near $70, $67 and $66 per barrel, stable production near guidance and modest cost savings. Production rose from 1.223 million to 1.434 million BOE per day while costs fell from $10.48 to $8.94 per BOE. The bear case gives $8.8 billion, $8.1 billion and $8.2 billion as oil falls toward $55 and gas remains weak. The bull case gives $16.5 billion, $17.3 billion and $18.2 billion as oil stays near $80–$82, Midland productivity improves and savings persist. Each $1 WTI change affects pretax cash by about $240 million.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 13,400 (8,800 / 16,500) | 12,800 (8,100 / 17,300) | 12,500 (8,200 / 18,200) |
| Shares (millions) | 1,020 (1,020 / 1,012) | 1,018 (1,022 / 1,088) | 1,101 (1,024 / 1,080) |
| Dividends per share | 1.12 (0.84 / 1.12) | 1.12 (0.56 / 1.20) | 1.12 (0.56 / 1.28) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 5.20 (4.50 / 6.00) | 5.40 (4.00 / 6.30) | 5.50 (4.20 / 6.50) |
| Net debt | 4,989 (7,954 / 2,956) | 949 (6,526 / -3,997) | -3,008 (4,986 / -11,773) |
What this means. The negative net debt numbers mean the company would have more cash than borrowed money, so it would have net cash.
How much cash does OXY really make?
The simplest free-cash-flow calculation subtracts capital spending from cash from operations. Stock-based compensation then deserves separate attention: it does not consume cash like a salary, but it can dilute owners, so this memo’s “real free cash flow” subtracts it.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 9,606 | 10,519 | 10,235 |
| − Capital spending | 6,427 | 6,263 | 5,696 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,179 | 4,256 | 4,539 |
| − Stock pay | 234 | 213 | 203 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,945 | 4,043 | 4,336 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 14.4% | 19.2% | 19.0% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is 1,267 million higher because it adds back changes in money tied up in day-to-day business, making its cash number look larger than ours.
What does an investor pay for OXY today?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, divides the share price by earnings per share. A trailing P/E uses recent earnings; a forward P/E uses analysts’ expectations. The lower forward multiple means analysts expect earnings to improve. That is an assumption, not a promise: weaker oil prices or higher costs could leave the forecast denominator unmet.