EOG Resources stock forecast
EOG Resources' weighted forecast is $123.87 in October 2029, including dividends, for a 13% loss. It hinges on whether EOG Resources can produce enough cash after replacement spending, debt and shareholder returns.
Where could EOG Resources' shares go?
The weighted forecast is $124.64 in October 2027, an 18% loss, and $123.87 in October 2029, a 13% loss. It assigns 30% probability to the bear case, 50% to base and 20% to bull.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 52.56 (-64 %) | 29.33 (-76 %) | 39.19 (-67 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 127.48 (-16 %) | 127.24 (-14 %) | 123.87 (-13 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 225.64 (+46 %) | 248.74 (+63 %) | 250.87 (+68 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 124.64 (-18 %) | 122.17 (-17 %) | 123.87 (-13 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a separate forecast.
What has to go right for EOG Resources, and what could go wrong?
The bull case needs repeatable Utica savings and commercial exploration results. The bear case gains weight if prices weaken, organic replacement stays below drilling needs, or debt constrains distributions. The November 6, 2026 third-quarter call should show whether production, realized prices, taxes and operating cash flow support the spending plan. On January 1, 2027, Jeff Hibbard is due to become CFO, and Brent-linked gas deliveries are expected to begin. EOG’s scale matters only if it becomes durable per-share cash after replacing wells and funding debt and distributions.
How much cash does EOG Resources really make?
Capital spending was $6,594 million, leaving straightforward free cash flow of $3,450 million. Deducting $216 million of stock-based compensation leaves $3,234 million. Stock pay does not immediately consume cash, but it transfers ownership to employees or requires repurchases to prevent dilution.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 10,044 | 12,143 | 11,340 | 11,093 | 8,791 |
| − Capital spending | 6,594 | 6,372 | 6,185 | 5,000 | 3,850 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,450 | 5,771 | 5,155 | 6,093 | 4,941 |
| − Stock pay | 216 | 199 | 177 | 133 | 152 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,234 | 5,572 | 4,978 | 5,960 | 4,789 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow differs from ours because it leaves out some cash costs and makes other adjustments, so it may not show the cash truly left after all spending and stock pay.
What does an investor pay today for EOG Resources?
EOG looks reasonable against recent earnings but more demanding against cash left after drilling.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 157.52 |
| Market value (calculated) | 82,623.84 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 85,642.84 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 12.3x |
| EV to cash flow from operations (calculated) | 8.5x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.9% |
What this means. Enterprise value per flowing barrel means the market value assigned to each barrel of oil and gas the company produces per day, not the price of one barrel of oil.