ConocoPhillips stock forecast
The weighted price for ConocoPhillips is $145.55 in October 2027, reaching $183.15 by October 2029; the bear case has 30% probability, the base case 55%, and the bull case 15%. Production, project delivery and cash-flow improvement decide the outcome.
Where could ConocoPhillips's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is $145.55 in October 2027. That is an 8% total return. It reaches $183.15 by October 2029. That is a 40% total return. The bear case has 30% probability. The base case has 55%; the bull case has 15%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 91.09 (-32 %) | 67.61 (-47 %) | 71.18 (-42 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 154.08 (+14 %) | 175.53 (+33 %) | 202.70 (+55 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 223.17 (+65 %) | 278.06 (+107 %) | 335.41 (+152 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 145.55 (+8 %) | 158.53 (+20 %) | 183.15 (+40 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for ConocoPhillips?
EBITDA is the main operating assumption. The base case rises from $30,061 million in October 2027 to $34,007 million in October 2029; the table shows the intermediate year. The bear case falls from $22,685 million to $22,283 million, while the bull case rises from $36,299 million to $43,280 million. The base starts near the $30,340 million margin proxy derived from 2025 production, prices and costs. The company also guides to production of 2.295–2.325 million BOE per day and expects project income and lower spending to improve cash flow. The bear reflects the 4% acquisition-adjusted production decline reported in 2026 Q2 and Qatar disruption.
The bull case leads from $223.17 to $335.41. Qatar recovers promptly, Willow and LNG start near schedule, construction spending eases and strong cash flow funds both investment and shareholder returns. Its 15% probability reflects the need for several uncertain events to succeed together, including project timing and cost control.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 30,061 (22,685 / 36,299) | 31,872 (20,075 / 40,241) | 34,007 (22,283 / 43,280) |
| Shares (millions) | 1,171 (1,188 / 1,160) | 1,142 (1,178 / 1,123) | 1,115 (1,172 / 1,088) |
| Dividends per share | 3.36 (2.80 / 3.50) | 3.50 (2.80 / 3.75) | 3.64 (2.80 / 4.00) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 6.50 (5.50 / 7.50) | 6.75 (5.00 / 8.00) | 7.00 (4.75 / 8.50) |
| Net debt | 15,043 (16,507 / 13,350) | 14,729 (20,697 / 9,780) | 12,067 (22,429 / 2,870) |
How much cash does ConocoPhillips really make?
Capital spending was $12,553 million, leaving $7,243 million of free cash flow on the cash-statement basis. After stock compensation of $336 million, analytical “real free cash flow” was $6,907 million. Stock awards usually require no immediate cash, but they transfer ownership to employees, so they are an economic cost to shareholders.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 19,796 | 20,124 | 19,965 | 28,314 | 16,996 |
| − Capital spending | 12,553 | 12,118 | 11,248 | 10,159 | 5,324 |
| = Free cash flow | 7,243 | 8,006 | 8,717 | 18,155 | 11,672 |
| − Stock pay | 336 | 268 | 334 | 377 | 304 |
| = Real free cash flow | 6,907 | 7,738 | 8,383 | 17,778 | 11,368 |
What does a ConocoPhillips investor pay today?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, says how much investors pay for each dollar of profit. COP’s lower forward P/E already assumes analysts’ expected earnings improvement. Free cash flow is different from cash from operations because it subtracts the capital needed to maintain and expand production. COP’s promise to return 45% of cash from operations therefore still needs testing against sustaining investment, especially in a downturn.