Chevron stock forecast
Chevron's weighted forecast is $185.45 in October 2029. It hinges on Hess integration, project delivery, supportive oil and product markets, and sustained savings.
Where could Chevron's shares be by 2029?
The forecast points to modestly negative returns, with unusually wide possible outcomes. The weighted price is $196.84 in October 2027, a 4% loss including dividends. It falls to $192.79 in October 2028, a 2% loss. By October 2029, it reaches $185.45, also a 2% loss.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 137.41 (-32 %) | 109.66 (-42 %) | 88.35 (-49 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 203.89 (-0 %) | 198.39 (+1 %) | 180.87 (-4 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 268.38 (+30 %) | 303.47 (+50 %) | 342.52 (+73 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 196.84 (-4 %) | 192.79 (-2 %) | 185.45 (-2 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Chevron?
The bear case requires oil-price normalization, weaker refining margins and rising sustaining investment. Production still grows, but contribution per barrel falls, cash returns remain difficult to fund and debt rises. The shares fall to $137.41 in October 2027 and $88.35 by October 2029. Its 30% probability reflects the fall in EBITDA since 2022, commodity exposure, higher production costs and project-overrun risk.
The bull case requires Hess integration, project delivery, supportive oil and product markets, and sustained savings. Those gains lift EBITDA and valuation while buybacks sharply reduce the share count, even though the cash waterfall still shows rising debt. The shares reach $268.38 in October 2027 and $342.52 in October 2029. Its 20% probability reflects the number of conditions that must hold together.
How much cash does Chevron really make?
Finally, stock-based compensation and payments to minority owners reduce what belongs to Chevron’s common shareholders. The cash table makes those claims visible.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 33,939 | 31,492 | 35,609 | 49,602 | 29,187 |
| Capital spending | 17,347 | 16,448 | 15,829 | 11,974 | 8,056 |
| Free cash flow (calculated) | 16,592 | 15,044 | 19,780 | 37,628 | 21,131 |
| Stock-based pay | 472 | 600 | -15 | 1,073 | 761 |
| Real free cash flow (after stock pay) (calculated) | 16,120 | 14,444 | 19,795 | 36,555 | 20,370 |
| Free cash flow left for shareholders (calculated) | 15,786 | 14,234 | 19,741 | 36,437 | 20,317 |
What does an investor pay for Chevron today?
Free cash flow is operating cash left after capital spending. Management can distribute it through dividends and buybacks, repay debt, acquire assets or retain it. Chevron also estimates that each $1 change in Brent changes annual after-tax earnings and cash flow by about US$600 million. A $10 fall would therefore remove roughly US$6 billion under otherwise unchanged conditions.
| Today (Oct 9, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 211.82 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 20.3x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 14.9x |
| EV / revenue, last 12 months (calculated) | 2.1x |
| EV to cash flow from operations (calculated) | 13.2x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.0% |