Oracle stock forecast
Oracle's weighted forecast is $142.54 in October 2027. It hinges on converting cloud backlog into profitable capacity and cash returns.
Where could Oracle's shares be by 2029?
The forecast sees limited near-term upside but substantial two- and three-year potential if Oracle converts its cloud backlog into cash-generating capacity. The probability-weighted price is $142.54 in October 2027, a 2% return including dividends, rising to $216.62 in October 2028 and $312.99 in October 2029, equivalent to 56% and 126%. By October 2029, the range runs from $21.48 in the bear case to $701.39 in the bull case, against today’s $141.53.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 62.02 (-55 %) | 25.34 (-79 %) | 21.48 (-81 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 154.27 (+10 %) | 240.78 (+73 %) | 332.54 (+140 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 234.01 (+67 %) | 443.13 (+216 %) | 701.39 (+401 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 142.54 (+2 %) | 216.62 (+56 %) | 312.99 (+126 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Oracle?
The bear case assumes Oracle has signed demand but cannot deliver enough powered capacity profitably. Delays, weaker pricing and underused facilities keep free cash flow negative, while debt and dilution rise. The shares fall from $62.02 in October 2027 to $21.48 in October 2029. Its 30% probability reflects the $70B spending plan and the absence of proven steady-state OCI returns, though strong RPO and cloud growth make collapse less likely than not.
The bull case requires on-time capacity, broad customer demand, strong utilization, improving margins and cash flow that reduces leverage. It rises from $234.01 in October 2027 to $701.39 in October 2029. Its 20% probability reflects the number of conditions that must succeed together.
How much cash does Oracle really make?
Operating cash reached US$31,977 million in fiscal 2026, but capital spending reached US$55,663 million. Free cash flow—operating cash less capital spending—was therefore negative US$23,686 million. Oracle reported profit, but the bank account still needed funding for OCI.
Stock compensation adds another economic cost. Fiscal 2026 stock pay was US$4,811 million; deducting it from ordinary free cash flow produces analytical “real free cash flow” of negative US$28,497 million. The cash test therefore leads directly to the balance sheet and its financing demands.
| May 2026 | May 2025 | May 2024 | May 2023 | May 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 31,977 | 20,821 | 18,673 | 17,165 | 9,539 |
| − Capital spending | 55,663 | 21,215 | 6,866 | 8,695 | 4,511 |
| = Free cash flow | -23,686 | -394 | 11,807 | 8,470 | 5,028 |
| − Stock pay | 4,811 | 4,674 | 3,974 | 3,547 | 2,613 |
| = Real free cash flow | -28,497 | -5,068 | 7,833 | 4,923 | 2,415 |
What does an investor pay for Oracle today?
| Today (Oct 11, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 141.53 |
| Market value (calculated) | 432,585.28 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 22.2x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 12.8x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | -5.5% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | -6.6% |