Workday stock forecast
Workday's weighted price reaches $238.01 by October 2029, after $172.40 in October 2027 and $203.31 in October 2028. It hinges on whether paid AI and cross-selling become cash generation after stock pay.
Where could Workday's shares be by October 2029?
At October 2027, the weighted price is $172.40, a 10% loss with dividends. At October 2028, it reaches $203.31, a 7% gain. At October 2029, it reaches $238.01, a 25% gain.
The October 2029 range is $76.76 to $453.56. Today’s price is $190.81, so the outcomes remain unusually wide. The bear case carries 25%. The base case carries 55%. The bull case carries 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 86.28 (-55 %) | 68.49 (-64 %) | 76.76 (-60 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 180.01 (-6 %) | 211.04 (+11 %) | 232.92 (+22 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 259.10 (+36 %) | 350.57 (+84 %) | 453.56 (+138 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 172.40 (-10 %) | 203.31 (+7 %) | 238.01 (+25 %) |
What has to go right for Workday, and what could go wrong?
Free cash flow after stock pay rises in the base case from $1,753 million in October 2027 to $2,068 million in October 2028. It reaches $2,320 million in October 2029. The starting point is management’s $3,180 million FY2027 free-cash-flow guide, reduced by stock pay targeted at 16% of revenue. The FY2028 outlook implies roughly $1,860 million after stock pay, with subscription revenue growth moderating to 11%. The bear case gives $1,250 million, then $1,100 million, then $1,350 million because growth slows, AI remains unpaid and restructuring absorbs cash. The bull case gives $2,050 million, then $2,600 million, then $3,150 million because paid AI, cross-selling and scale improve cash conversion.
The base case reaches $180.01 first and $232.92 last. It assumes subscription growth moderates from the guided 13% FY2027 rate toward 11% in FY2028, while renewals, backlog and customer expansion support continued cash generation. Its 55% probability is highest because it does not require rapid paid-AI adoption or a major valuation re-rating.
How much cash does Workday really make?
Workday generates substantial cash, but stock pay makes conventional free cash flow more generous than the economics may feel to shareholders. Operations generated $2,939 million in FY26. Capital spending was $162 million, leaving $2,777 million of free cash flow.
| Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,939 | 2,461 | 2,149 | 1,657 | 1,651 |
| − Capital spending | 162 | 269 | 232 | 364 | 435 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,777 | 2,192 | 1,917 | 1,293 | 1,216 |
| − Stock pay | 1,626 | 1,519 | 1,416 | 1,295 | 1,101 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,151 | 673 | 501 | -2 | 115 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 12.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | -0.0% | 2.2% |
What this means. The company's free cash flow looks high because it does not subtract shares given to employees; we subtract them because they reduce what existing shareholders own.
What does an investor pay for Workday today?
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 190.81 |
| Market value (calculated) | 45,985.21 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 45,571.21 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 38.7x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 14.4x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.5% |