Alphabet stock forecast
Alphabet’s weighted case reaches US$510.69 by October 2029, a 46% return including dividends. Alphabet’s upside depends on turning AI and infrastructure investment into durable cash per share.
Where could Alphabet's shares be by October 2029?
The forecast points to $376.88 in October 2027, $429.30 in October 2028 and $510.69 in October 2029, including dividends. Those prices imply returns of 7%, 23% and 46% from today’s $351.66. By October 2029, however, the bear case reaches only $238.70 while the bull case reaches $792.61, so the path matters as much as the average.
The probabilities are 25% bear, 55% base and 20% bull. The base case therefore carries most weight, but the downside is substantial if Search economics weaken before Cloud returns become visible.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | 283.48 (-19%) | 249.20 (-29%) | 238.70 (-31%) |
| Base | 55% | 391.25 (+12%) | 448.91 (+28%) | 531.80 (+52%) |
| Bull | 20% | 454.11 (+29%) | 600.48 (+72%) | 792.61 (+127%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 376.88 (+7%) | 429.30 (+23%) | 510.69 (+46%) |
What has to go right or wrong for Alphabet?
EBITDA is the main operating judgement. The latest proxy is about $174,800 million, based on trailing operating income plus annualised first-half depreciation. The base case rises to $206,700 million in October 2027, then $240,950 million and $276,000 million, as Search, YouTube, subscriptions and Cloud grow. Cloud revenue grew 82% year over year and backlog reached about $513,900 million, but infrastructure spending limits early margin expansion.
The bear case keeps EBITDA near the latest proxy before reaching $187,200 million, because AI answers may reduce valuable clicks, serving costs may rise and Cloud conversion may lag. The bull case reaches $331,800 million as AI supports Search, backlog converts quickly and new capacity earns attractive margins. These are estimates, not guidance. Management raised 2026 capital-spending guidance to $195,000–$205,000 million and signalled another significant increase in 2027.
How much cash does Alphabet really make?
Free cash flow is cash from operations minus spending on long-lasting assets. In 2025, Alphabet generated $164,713 million from operations and spent $91,447 million on capital spending, leaving $73,266 million of free cash flow. Capital spending absorbed almost the entire increase in operating cash, so free-cash-flow margin fell to 18.2%.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 164,713 | 125,299 | 101,746 | 91,495 | 91,652 |
| − Capital spending | 91,447 | 52,535 | 32,251 | 31,485 | 24,640 |
| = Free cash flow | 73,266 | 72,764 | 69,495 | 60,010 | 67,012 |
| − Stock pay | 24,953 | 22,785 | 22,460 | 19,362 | 15,376 |
| = Real free cash flow | 48,313 | 49,979 | 47,035 | 40,648 | 51,636 |
What does an investor pay for Alphabet today?
| Today (Oct 11, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 351.66 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 17.6x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 23.2x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.7% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.1% |