National Bank earnings date and guidance
National Bank’s next results are expected on December 2, 2026. Watch credit costs, AIRB approval and revenue synergies as National Bank tests its plan.
What has National Bank guided for adjusted earnings and returns?
Its medium-term goals are faster adjusted earnings-per-share growth, a higher adjusted return on equity, and a controlled dividend payout. Adjusted profit removes items management considers unusual, such as some acquisition expenses, so readers can see the underlying business. But those costs still consume cash, profit or capital.
The less certain promise is AIRB, an approved internal method for measuring credit risk. If regulators accept better-calibrated models, the same loans may require less common capital. That can improve return on equity, but it creates neither customer revenue nor cash, and the expected benefit has moved to late 2027.
| Period it covers | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CET1 ratio target | Fiscal 2027 | 13.0% | 13.0% | 2026-08-26 |
| Growth in diluted earnings per share – Adjusted | Medium-term | 5.0% | 10.0% | 2025-12-03 |
| ROE – Adjusted | Medium-term | 15.0% | 20.0% | 2025-12-03 |
| Dividend payout ratio – Adjusted | Medium-term | 40.0% | 50.0% | 2025-12-03 |
| ROE target | Fiscal 2026 | 16.0% | 16.0% | 2026-08-26 |
| Adjusted ROE target | Fiscal 2027 | 17.0% | 2026-08-26 |
What this means. The share repurchase figures show how many shares the company is allowed to buy and spend, not how much it has already bought or spent.
Has National Bank kept its past promises?
National Bank announced C$270 million in annual pre-tax cost and funding synergies, expected by the third year after closing. By July 31, 2026, it reported C$238 million in cumulative realized cost and funding synergies. It also reported C$52 million in revenue synergies against a C$50 million target. Cumulative savings are benefits added up since completion; an annualized figure is the current run-rate over twelve months. They are not interchangeable.
How have National Bank revenue and profit trended?
Revenue reached C$4,053 million, up 17.5% year over year. Net income reached C$1,307 million, up 22.7%. The result was stronger than a comparison distorted by the acquisition-heavy period, but its composition matters.
| Jul 2026 | Apr 2026 | Jan 2026 | Oct 2025 | Jul 2025 | Apr 2025 | Jan 2025 | Oct 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,053 | 3,907 | 3,893 | 3,698 | 3,449 | 3,650 | 3,183 | 2,944 |
| Net interest income | 1,254 | 1,309 | 1,394 | 1,169 | 1,172 | 1,205 | 972 | 784 |
| Net income | 1,307 | 1,234 | 1,254 | 1,059 | 1,065 | 896 | 997 | 955 |
| EPS, diluted | 3.25 | 3.06 | 3.08 | 2.57 | 2.58 | 2.17 | 2.78 | 2.66 |
| Net interest margin | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| CET1 capital ratio | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 13.7% |
What this means. Although the descriptions say yearly figures, each column covers one quarter, or about three months.
What should investors watch in National Bank’s next results?
Investors should therefore watch the AIRB submission and approval, actual repurchases, credit costs and analyst revisions. By fiscal 2028, the decisive test will be whether revenue synergies persist after conversion costs and credit losses.