National Bank stock forecast
The probability-weighted forecast reaches C$203.16 in October 2027 and C$225.56 in October 2029. It hinges on CWB integration.
Where could National Bank's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast reaches C$203.16 in October 2027. That is a +3% return with dividends included. At October 2029, it reaches C$225.56. That is a +20% return with dividends included. The model assigns a 30% probability to the bear case. The base case is 50%; the bull case is 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 163.79 (-16 %) | 149.03 (-21 %) | 135.44 (-25 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 215.78 (+9 %) | 231.99 (+20 %) | 249.88 (+32 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 230.65 (+17 %) | 263.33 (+36 %) | 299.95 (+57 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 203.16 (+3 %) | 213.37 (+11 %) | 225.56 (+20 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a separate prediction.
What has to go right or wrong for National Bank?
Book value grows in every base-case year because retained earnings exceed dividends and repurchases. The base path starts from the latest common-equity balance and rises steadily, while the bear case ends at C$35,460 million and the bull case at C$36,910 million. The base assumes CWB integration and stable credit costs; the bear lowers earnings and buybacks, while the bull assumes stronger synergies and full repurchases.
How much does National Bank earn and give back?
Kept, per share — CWB items, including recurring amortization, cost C$462 million after tax; without them, money kept after dividends and buybacks was C$6.11 per share.
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 10.07 | 10.68 | 9.24 | 9.61 | 8.85 |
| − Dividends, per share | 4.61 | 4.28 | 3.94 | 3.54 | 2.81 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.72 | 0.00 |
| = Kept, per share | 4.90 | 6.40 | 5.30 | 5.36 | 6.04 |
| Book value per share | 78.39 | 65.74 | 60.40 | 55.24 | 47.44 |
What this means. The 11.6% increase in diluted shares means each share represents a smaller piece of the company, even though the company spent money buying back some shares.
What does an investor pay for National Bank today?
The current price and forward P/E imply about C$13.14 of earnings per share over the next twelve months. That is about 9.7% above the earnings implied by the trailing multiple. The broad message is simple: investors already expect earnings to improve.
| Today (Oct 14, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 202.31 |
| Market value (calculated) | 77,230 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 16.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 15.4x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 2.5x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.6% |
What this means. The next-year price-to-earnings ratio uses analysts’ guesses about future profit, so it can be wrong.