MSCI earnings: guidance, results and what to watch
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: MSCI's next results are expected on January 27, 2027. Watch MSCI's recurring growth against the expense base required to support it.
What has MSCI guided for 2026?
For 2026, management guides to operating cash flow of $1,655–$1,705 million and free cash flow of $1,485–$1,545 million. Operating cash flow is the cash produced after running the business, including interest and taxes. Free cash flow is what remains after equipment and qualifying software investment. It is the cash available for acquisitions, debt repayment, dividends and repurchases, so the two measures cannot be added.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Expense | Year to Dec 2026 | 1,535 | 1,575 | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Adjusted EBITDA Expense | Year to Dec 2026 | 1,340 | 1,370 | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Interest Expense (including amortization of financing fees) | Year to Dec 2026 | 288 | 291 | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Capital Expenditures | Year to Dec 2026 | 160 | 170 | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities | Year to Dec 2026 | 1,655 | 1,705 | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Free Cash Flow | Year to Dec 2026 | 1,485 | 1,545 | Oct 20, 2026 |
What this means. MSCI’s free cash flow measure excludes both capital spending and capitalized software development costs, so it may look higher than a standard free cash flow calculation.
Has MSCI kept its past promises?
The five-year record is mixed. Both cash measures met or exceeded initial guidance in four years, while operating expenses exceeded their initial budgets twice. A fair overall assessment is 3/5: revised promises were often met, but the original forecasts were not always preserved.
| What management forecast | Checked | Above | Within | Below |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Expense | 5 years | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities | 5 years | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Free Cash Flow | 5 years | 3 | 1 | 1 |
What are MSCI's recent revenue and profit trends?
Cash was weaker than the income statement. Operating cash flow and the company’s fuller free-cash-flow measure both declined in Q3 2026, with higher cash interest a major reason. The quarter was therefore mixed: improving demand, helpful markets and a larger financing claim on cash.
| Sep 2026 | Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 892.0 | 867.0 | 850.8 | 822.528 | 793.4 | 772.7 | 745.8 | 743.509 |
| Operating income | 502.1 | 487.5 | 456.9 | 463.62 | 447.6 | 425.3 | 377.0 | 405.194 |
| Net income | 351.0 | 342.0 | 406.0 | 284.669 | 325.3 | 303.7 | 288.6 | 305.515 |
| EPS, diluted | 4.86 | 4.69 | 5.53 | 3.81 | 4.25 | 3.92 | 3.71 | 3.90 |
| Cash from operations | 436.1 | 370.8 | 306.8 | 501.13 | 449.4 | 336.2 | 301.7 | 430.633 |
| = Free cash flow | 422.7 | 359.8 | 304 | 488.691 | 445.4 | 324.8 | 290.1 | 416.386 |
What should I watch in MSCI's next results?
The next checkpoint is the fourth-quarter earnings call on January 26, 2027. It should show whether MSCI delivered its 2026 cash promises and how management now plans to fund spending. The key comparison will be recurring growth against the expense base required to support it.