S&P Global stock forecast
S&P Global's weighted scenario reaches $553.76 in October 2029, after $452.43 in October 2027. It hinges on durable growth, cash generation and disciplined buybacks.
Where could S&P Global's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is $452.43 in October 2027, a 12% total return including dividends. It reaches $507.45 in October 2028, a 26% return. By October 2029, it reaches $553.76, a 39% return.
At the final date, the bear and bull outcomes span $320.47 to $838.88. The current price is $408.57. The base case remains the central path, but the range shows how much issuance, AI monetization, leverage, and valuation could matter.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 351.12 (-13 %) | 340.10 (-15 %) | 320.47 (-19 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 467.01 (+15 %) | 531.41 (+32 %) | 574.98 (+44 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 559.85 (+38 %) | 685.27 (+70 %) | 838.88 (+109 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 452.43 (+12 %) | 507.45 (+26 %) | 553.76 (+39 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is a probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a promise that the shares will reach that price.
What has to go right or wrong for S&P Global?
Healthy issuance, stronger renewals, paid AI adoption, productivity gains and sustained buybacks drive the bull case. Weaker issuance, seat cuts or leverage above target pressure the forecast. The October 27, 2026 results are the first test against the post-Mobility recast history. Through 2027, Market Intelligence renewals and AI-connected products must lift customer spending while leverage moves toward target. The thesis is simple: S&P Global can compound per-share cash growth if its franchises withstand cycles, AI disruption and post-spin leverage.
How much cash does S&P Global really make?
Free cash flow is operating cash after capital spending. In 2025, operating cash fell slightly and free cash flow fell 2.0%, even as net income increased. That does not prove the earnings are fictitious. It means the specialist must inspect the timing of collections and payments.
There are also different claims on the cash. S&P Global’s own free-cash-flow measure deducts $321 million distributed to noncontrolling interests, which belong to outside owners of consolidated businesses. The alternative measure here deducts $236 million of stock compensation, because stock pay gives employees a claim on shareholders’ value. Deducting both would produce a different answer, not a more official one.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 5,651 | 5,689 | 3,710 | 2,603 | 3,598 |
| − Capital spending | 195 | 124 | 143 | 89 | 35 |
| = Free cash flow | 5,456 | 5,565 | 3,567 | 2,514 | 3,563 |
| − Stock pay | 236 | 247 | 171 | 214 | 122 |
| = Real free cash flow | 5,220 | 5,318 | 3,396 | 2,300 | 3,441 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 34.0% | 37.4% | 27.2% | 20.6% | 41.5% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is lower because it subtracts cash paid to other owners of partly owned businesses, while our count does not.
What does an investor pay for S&P Global today?
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 408.57 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 24.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 20.2x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.5% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.3% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.9% |
What this means. The enterprise value and price-to-book figure still include the Mobility business from before it separated, so they may not match what the company looks like today.