Deutsche Börse stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Deutsche Börse's weighted case reaches €303.32 in October 2029. Deutsche Börse's outcome hinges on execution and valuation.
Where could Deutsche Börse's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is €285.21 in October 2027, equivalent to a 6% loss including dividends. It reaches €293.73 in October 2028, a 2% loss. By October 2029, it reaches €303.32, a 3% gain including dividends. The bear case gets 30%, while the base case gets 50%. The bull case gets 20%. By October 2029, outcomes span €190.54 to €462.24. Today's price is €309.50.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 231.63 (-24 %) | 210.27 (-29 %) | 190.54 (-34 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 292.34 (-4 %) | 301.26 (+1 %) | 307.42 (+4 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 347.77 (+14 %) | 400.09 (+33 %) | 462.24 (+55 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 285.21 (-6 %) | 293.73 (-2 %) | 303.32 (+3 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the three cases, not a promise that the share price will reach that value.
What has to go right for Deutsche Börse, and what could go wrong?
It requires lower treasury income, weaker fee growth and an Allfunds integration whose costs and dilution arrive before its savings. The probability is 30% because treasury income fell from €1,050m to €837m, while the current valuation already exceeds the historical average.
The bull case leads to €347.77 in October 2027 and €462.24 by October 2029. It requires software growth, stronger Eurex and EEX fee conversion, operating leverage and Allfunds savings arriving on schedule. The probability is 20% because the 28.0x terminal multiple requires sustained confidence despite financing and integration risk.
How much cash does Deutsche Börse really make?
After physical capital spending, leases and interest, this memo calculates free cash flow and then deducts stock pay. That deduction recognises that share-based compensation remains a cost to shareholders, even when the company does not pay cash immediately.
The larger question is software. Payments for intangible assets were €325 million, compared with €55 million for property and equipment. Deducting that investment leaves a smaller cash residual before acquisitions and other commitments.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,810 | 2,411 | 2,549 | 2,484 | 909 |
| − Capital spending | 55 | 58 | 49.5 | 109.6 | 37.8 |
| − Interest paid | 157 | 157 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,508 | 2,102 | 2,415.9 | 2,298.5 | 808.6 |
| − Stock pay | 45 | 74 | 60.1 | 48.5 | 21.6 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,463 | 2,028 | 2,355.8 | 2,250 | 787 |
What this means. The table subtracts lease payments and interest paid from cash from operations, even though its definition of free cash flow mentions only spending on equipment.
What does an investor pay for Deutsche Börse today?
| Today (Oct 23, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 309.50 |
| Market value (calculated) | 55,799.03077 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 25.5x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 24.0x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.5% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 1.4% |
What this means. The last-12-month price-to-earnings figure may mislead because it uses earnings per share from only one quarter, not all four quarters, and ignores possible extra shares from convertible bonds.