MSCI stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: MSCI's weighted price is $576.29 in October 2029. It hinges on subscription growth.
Where could MSCI's shares be by October 2029?
The probability-weighted forecast is essentially flat, with dividends doing most of the work. The weighted price is $585.47 in October 2027, a 0% total return. It is $578.05 in October 2028, a 1% return. By October 2029, it is $576.29, a 2% return. The final outcomes range from the bull case’s $525.90 to the bear case’s $622.54, compared with today’s $591.69.
The forecast assigns 30% to the bear case, 55% to the base case and 15% to the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 590.55 (+1 %) | 598.46 (+4 %) | 622.54 (+9 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 585.84 (+0 %) | 574.23 (-0 %) | 564.82 (+0 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 573.97 (-2 %) | 551.24 (-4 %) | 525.90 (-6 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 585.47 (+0 %) | 578.05 (+1 %) | 576.29 (+2 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for MSCI?
Cash generation supplies the main growth assumption. The base case reaches $1,484M in October 2027. It reaches $1,602M in October 2028 and $1,730M in October 2029. This represents growth of 6.4% from the 2026 estimate of $1,395M to October 2027, followed by approximately 8% annual growth through October 2029. The historical measure rose every year, although growth slowed in the latest period. Recurring subscription revenue grew 7.7% in Q3 2026, while organic recurring subscription Run Rate grew 8.7%.
The bear row falls to $1,339M before recovering to $1,434M, reflecting weaker Index fees, cancellations and cost pressure. The bull row rises from $1,536M to $1,951M, requiring stronger sales across Index, Analytics and Private Assets plus better cost discipline.
How much cash does MSCI really make?
Share compensation is another economic cost. Issuing shares does not immediately reduce cash, but it transfers value from existing owners. Dividends were comfortably supported by the company’s free-cash-flow measure in 2025; repurchases were much larger and exceeded internally generated free cash when considered with dividends.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,588,446 | 1,501,627 | 1,236,029 | 1,095,369 | 936,069 |
| − Capital spending | 39,319 | 33,762 | 22,757 | 13,617 | 13,509 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,549,127 | 1,467,865 | 1,213,272 | 1,081,752 | 922,560 |
| − Stock pay | 111,343 | 95,204 | 71,653 | 58,094 | 54,917 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,437,784 | 1,372,661 | 1,141,619 | 1,023,658 | 867,643 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is lower than our free cash flow because it subtracts software development costs that we leave out; our real free cash flow is lower still because we also count shares given to employees as a cost.
What does an investor pay for MSCI today?
| Today (Oct 21, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 591.69 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 31.3x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.7% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.4% |
What this means. Price to book is not meaningful because the company owes more than it owns on paper, making its book value negative.