MSCI dividend: payout, cash cover and yield
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: MSCI pays $8.20 per share at the forecast starting point, with a declared quarterly dividend of $2.05. MSCI's dividend was comfortably supported by its free-cash-flow measure in 2025, while buybacks were much larger and exceeded internally generated free cash when considered with dividends.
How much does MSCI pay per share?
Dividends start at $8.20 per share in every case. The base case rises to $9.0 and then $9.9. The bear case stays flat, while the bull case reaches $9.4 and then $10.8. The starting point follows the declared quarterly dividend of $2.05. The moderate base increases are below the historical dividend growth rate of about 18.6%, because debt and buybacks compete for cash.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real free cash flow per share | 18.76 | 17.38 | 14.30 | 12.60 | 10.39 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 7.26 | 6.45 | 5.52 | 4.59 | 3.62 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 31.56 | 10.26 | 5.75 | 15.82 | 1.67 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow per share is higher because it does not subtract the value of shares given to employees as pay; we subtract it because those shares reduce each investor's ownership.
How much would MSCI's dividend pay you?
$10,000 invested in MSCI at its 1.4% dividend yield (our report of October 21, 2026) pays $140.00 in the first year, before tax. If its dividend per share keeps changing 19.0% a year, as it did from 2021 to 2025, and the dividends are reinvested, year 10 pays $881.28, with $4,032.66 received in all.
Before tax. Past dividend growth is not a promise. Information only, not investment advice.
Is MSCI's dividend covered by its cash?
Share compensation is another economic cost. Issuing shares does not immediately reduce cash, but it transfers value from existing owners. Dividends were comfortably supported by the company’s free-cash-flow measure in 2025; repurchases were much larger and exceeded internally generated free cash when considered with dividends.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 1,549,127 | 1,467,865 | 1,213,272 | 1,081,752 | 922,560 |
| − Dividends paid | 556,521 | 509,109 | 440,993 | 372,915 | 302,449 |
| − Share buybacks | 2,418,512 | 810,176 | 458,721 | 1,284,825 | 139,580 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 148,580 | 313,558 | 480,531 | ||
| = Paid out more than the free cash flow | 1,425,906 | 575,988 | |||
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 192.0% | 89.9% | 74.2% | 153.2% | 47.9% |
What this means. In 2025, the company paid shareholders more cash than its business generated, so it had to use savings or new borrowing to cover the difference.
What could change MSCI's dividend?
Management’s October 20, 2026 guidance calls for operating cash flow of $1,655–$1,705 million in 2026. It calls for free cash flow of $1,485–$1,545 million. Interest expense guidance is $288–$291 million, reflecting higher borrowing under the revolver, a credit line MSCI can draw, repay and draw again, to support repurchases.
The deciding drivers are recurring subscription growth and cancellations, Index pricing, margins, and whether repurchases fit cash generation and leverage discipline. The next checkpoint is the Q4 2026 earnings call on January 26, 2027. Sustainability and Climate had $7.6 million of new recurring sales against $8.7 million of cancellations in Q3 2026. MSCI had $810 million drawn on its $1.6 billion revolver at September 30, 2026.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 1,484 (1,339 / 1,536) | 1,602 (1,368 / 1,731) | 1,730 (1,434 / 1,951) |
| Shares (millions) | 69.87 (70.88 / 69.01) | 68.27 (70.22 / 66.62) | 66.79 (69.62 / 64.40) |
| Dividends per share | 8.20 (8.20 / 8.20) | 9.00 (8.20 / 9.40) | 9.90 (8.20 / 10.80) |
| Net debt | 6,852 (6,346 / 7,392) | 7,095 (6,130 / 8,109) | 7,256 (5,845 / 8,664) |
What is MSCI's dividend yield today?
At $591.69, MSCI trades at 31.3x trailing earnings. Its free cash flow yield is 3.7%. Its buyback yield is 5.7%. Revenue reached $3,134,459 thousand in 2025, while operating margin was 54.7%. The company’s real free cash flow was 45.9% of revenue. Net debt reached $5,686,954 thousand. Real free cash flow per share reached $18.76 as diluted shares fell 2.9%.